Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week
by J. Marshall Adkins
Energy Stat: If Iranian Sanctions Get Lifted, How Much Oil Can Flood the Market?
March 30, 2015
Iran has been an inescapable presence in the oil market's geopolitical thought process over the past decade. International concern (to put it mildly) over Iran's nuclear program dates back to at least 2003, but none of the various sanctions have had the bite of the European Union's oil embargo since 2012. For the oil market, losing close to 1.0 MMbpd of Iranian oil exports was a significant supply disruption that clearly helped support $100+/Bbl oil prices at the time. Now, a potential return of this lost Iranian oil supply provides yet another source of pressure for already beaten-down oil prices. As Iranian nuclear talks approach a key deadline on March 31, investors are understandably apprehensive. In this Stat, we explain how much Iranian oil could potentially hit the market and how soon and assess the likelihood of an agreement that would actually allow this oil to re-enter the market.
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