Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut
Mr. Market
March 8, 2010
“Ben Graham, my friend and teacher, long ago described the mental attitude toward market fluctuations that I believe to be most conducive to investment success. He said that you should imagine market quotations as coming from a remarkable accommodating fellow named Mr. Market who is your partner in private business. Without fail, Mr. Market appears daily and names a price at which he will either buy your interest or sell you his.
Even though the business that the two of you own may have economic characteristics that are stable, Mr. Market’s quotations will be anything but. For, sad to say, the poor fellow has incurable emotional problems. At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. When in that mood, he names a very high buy-sell price because he fears that you will snap up his interest and rob him of imminent gains. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world. On these occasions he will name a very low price, since he is terrified that you will unload your interest on him.
Mr. Market has another endearing characteristic: he doesn’t mind being ignored. If his quotation is uninteresting to you today, he will be back with a new one tomorrow. Transactions are strictly at your option. Under these conditions, the more manic-depressive his behavior, the better for you. But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up someday in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don’t belong in the game. As they say in poker, ’If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.’”
...Warren Buffett
We revisit Warren Buffet’s “Mr. Market” quip this morning because of a few emails I received regarding last week’s missive. My emailers were upset with the reference to Berkshire Hathaway’s stock performance. To wit:
“Since 1965 the S&P 500’s compounded annual gain (including dividends) was ~9.3% for a compounded return of 5,430%. Over that same timeframe Berkshire’s annual compounded return was 20.3%, or 434,057%. Consistency was the key to Berkshire’s outperformance for over those 44 years the S&P 500 suffered 11 down years, six of which were double-digit declines. Berkshire, however, had only two negative years, neither of which were double-digits. Such risk-adjusted investing has always characterized Warren Buffet for he maintains it isn’t his best ideas that gave him his tremendous track record. It was having a smaller number of bad ideas that resulted in a permanent loss of capital.”
Obviously, Warren Buffet doesn’t measure himself according to fluctuations in Berkshire’s share price. Importantly, he measures himself by growth in book value, which is admittedly less volatile than share price. To be sure, Mr. Market is manic-depressive. “At times he feels euphoric and can see only the favorable factors affecting the business. At other times he is depressed and can see nothing but trouble ahead for both the business and the world.” That manic-depression surfaced in 2008 when Berkshire’s shares lost an eye-popping 50% of their value. However, Berkshire’s book value declined by a mere 9.6%. Still, that stock price performance brought about catcalls that the “old man” (read: Warren Buffet) had lost his touch. We recall similar cries in the late 1990s when Mr. Buffet was cast as a buffoon, who just didn’t “get it,” because he was hoarding cash and shunning Internet stocks. Subsequently, the S&P 500 peaked in the spring of 2000 (@1553) and over the next seven years only gained ~0.008% (to 1565). Meanwhile, the “buffoon” grew his book value by nearly 80% and Berkshire’s share price improved by 268%. As Benjamin Graham noted, “In the short run the stock market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.” Ladies and gentlemen, over the long-term, the fate of every stock is ultimately driven by the operating results of the underlying business. This is determined by BOOK VALUE, EARNINGS, and CASH FLOWS. Accordingly, measuring Berkshire’s performance on those metrics makes more sense than measuring on its share price.
As the insightful Puru Saxena’s writes:
“Over the past 140 years, the return from American stocks has almost mirrored the growth in corporate earnings. During times of high volatility and great economic uncertainty, it pays to remember that stocks represent partial stakes in operating businesses. Therefore, as long as the businesses you own are producing satisfactory results, it is best to ignore the market’s temporary appraisal of your holdings. It is worth noting that during secular bull-markets, stocks outperform bonds and cash. Conversely, during secular bear-markets, they produce disappointing returns (like they did in 2008). Fortunately, secular bear-markets do not happen very often and they are always followed by lengthy and powerful bull-markets.”
And that, folks, is the real question. Are we in a new secular bull market, or just a tactical rally within a trading range stock market that we have envisioned since the Dow Theory “sell signal” of September 1999? Regrettably, while we would like to believe it is a new secular “bull market,” we are sticking with the strategy that it is a tactical rally within an ongoing “range bound” stock market. If we are wrong, our accounts should experience good returns. If we are right, said accounts should still achieve decent total returns, on a risk-adjusted basis, given our emphasis on dividend paying stocks.
Speaking of dividends, the iShares Trust DJ Select Dividend Index Fund (DVY/$45.36) broke out to a new recovery high last week, as can be seen in the nearby chart. We like dividends and would note that since 1926 dividends have accounted for roughly 44% of the stock market’s total return. Dividends also tend to give investors the “margin of safety” Benjamin Graham spoke of in the last chapter of his book “The Intelligent Investor.” This week a number of stocks in Raymond James’ universe of stocks will go ex-dividend. Some of the names we have recommended include: Home Depot (HD); NTELOS (NTLS); Allstate (ALL); Leggett & Platt (LEG); and Family Dollar (FDO). Meanwhile, CenturyTel (CTL) went ex-dividend last Friday and its share price was reduced accordingly. We think that reduction affords an attractive entry point. We also continue to think small capitalization Japanese stocks are in aggregate one of the world’s cheapest investments. Selling below book value, and at a price-to-sales ratio of 0.40, we believe the risk/reward ratio is attractive. Hereto, we favor dividends and are using Wisdomtree’s Japan Small Cap Dividend Fund (DFJ/$40.73).
The call for this week: One year ago we stated that the bottoming process that began in October 2008 was complete and we were “all in.” We won’t have that same opportunity this year for we’re at the Raymond James 31st Annual Institutional Investors Conference with more than 300 presenting companies and some 700 portfolio managers. Consequently, these will likely be the only strategy comments for the week. Nevertheless, it still appears that the new year’s “selling stampede” ended with the “hammer lows” recorded on February 4th and 5th, and, we tilted accounts accordingly. Meanwhile, March, April, and May are seasonally the strongest months of the year for the S&P 500 (SPX/1138.70). Combine that with the fact that the breadth figures have been stronger than the SPX’s actual price rise, and that positive 4Q09 earnings and revenue surprises have exceeded 70%, and we see no reason to alter our 1200 – 1250 intermediate-term price target. That said, the SPX has expended a lot of energy, rallying rally back to the 1140 – 1150 overhead resistance zone, so it would not surprise us to see the markets stall for awhile before trending higher. As for the recent spate of softening economic reports, it feels like consumers are merely reacting to a winter that is now legend. Our sense is the stormy February data will abate with Spring. Evidently Warren Buffet thinks so as well given his recent statement, “We got past Pearl Harbor (and) we will win the war. It’s going slightly our way.”
“Be Conservative Not Conventional”
March 1, 2010
“Here’s the paradox: the odds are overwhelming I will end up richer by aiming for a good return rather than a brilliant return – and sleep better en route. Folks who seek a killing usually get killed. Gunslingers get shot, and often in the foot, with their own guns. While there is always some guy around on a red-hot streak, his main function is to tempt the rest of us into becoming fools and paupers. A return of 15% to 20% annually is a lot more than most folks realize, or need. If a 30-year old with $10,000 in an IRA gets 15% annually, he’ll be a millionaire before normal retirement. That’s the power of compound interest. If that same 30-year old were to sock away another $2,000 per year at 15%, he would end up as a 65-year old $3 million fat cat. At 20%, it’s an incredible $13 million. That’s a lot, but it’s not too much to ask. The two most definitive studies ever on long-term returns, the Ibbotson/Sinquefield and Fisher/Lorie studies, both point to average annual returns for stocks of 9% plus per year going back to the mid-1920s. So 15% to 20% per year is really 66% to 100% better than the market as a whole. That’s tough but doable. Consistency is the key. It is close to impossible to get a good, long-term, rate of return if you suffer serious negative numbers en route. It’s the math. A single year that is down 30% means you have to get 30% per year positive returns for the next four years to get back on track for a 15% annual average. Or, if you score 20% annually for four years, and then suffer a 30% decline, your five-year average return is only 7%.”
...Ken Fisher, Forbes, 1989
I was reminded of Ken Fisher’s cogent comments from his 1989 Forbes article as I perused Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholders’ letter over the weekend. The “memory jog” came while examining Berkshire’s stock market performance. Sure enough, since 1965 the S&P 500’s compounded annual gain (including dividends) was ~9.3% for a compounded return of 5,430%. Over that same timeframe Berkshire’s annual compounded return was 20.3%, or 434,057%. Consistency was the key to Berkshire’s outperformance for over those 44 years the S&P 500 suffered 11 down years, six of which were double-digit declines. Berkshire, however, had only two negative years, neither of which were double-digits. Such risk-adjusted investing has always characterized Warren Buffet, for he maintains it isn’t his best ideas that gave him his tremendous track record. It was having a smaller number of bad ideas that resulted in a permanent loss of capital. “We haven’t taken two steps forward and one step back. We’ve taken two steps forward and a fraction of a step back. Avoiding the catastrophes is really important.”
As usual, Warren Buffet peppers this year’s letter with witticisms that offer useful gleanings to investors. We particularly liked the section titled “What We Don’t Do.” The first bullet point reads:
“Charlie and I avoid businesses whose futures we can’t evaluate, no matter how exciting their products may be. In the past, it required no brilliance for people to foresee the fabulous growth that awaited such industries as autos (in 1910), aircraft (in 1930) and television sets (in 1950). But the future then also included competitive dynamics that would decimate almost all of the companies entering those industries. Even the survivors tended to come away bleeding.”
We revisit Warren Buffet, and Ken Fisher’s, comments this morning because we think 2010 is a transitional year where being “conservative not conventional” is the preferred investment strategy. Accordingly, we like high quality “growth” over “value” and are avoiding companies with highly leveraged balance sheets. We are also looking for companies whose earnings forecasts are being revised upwards, as well as companies with dividend yields. We prefer large capitalization stocks because the drag on relative performance from narrowing credit spreads is waning. Moreover, the current economic, and credit, environments are worse for small/mid-caps; and, large caps tend to outperform when the economic momentum peaks like it appears to be doing. Further, large capitalization companies’ P/E multiples are 20% below those of the small/mid-cap complexes. That said, we are always interested in special situations, no matter what their capitalization flavor.
If indeed this turns out to be a transitional year, we think investors should employ a more dynamic strategy in part of their portfolios. This does not mean we favor the “rapid fire” strategy of trying to day-trade, or even trade on a week-to-week basis. Rather, we favor waiting until the risk/reward ratio is tipped so far in our favor that if we are wrong, we will be wrong quickly with a de minimis loss of capital. For example, we entered 2010 in a pretty cautious mode, worried that the first few weeks of the new year have historically been tricky. Subsequently, we determined the equity markets had fallen into a “selling stampede.” Knowing that such stampedes tend to last 17 to 25 sessions we remained cautious, but continue to add stocks to our “watch list.” Following the climatic downside deluge of February 4th and 5th, we opined the stampede was abating and recommended tranching into (read: buying partial positions) some of the stocks on our various lists. We still feel that way.
That positive view was reinforced last week when the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed above the 30-day EMA. Additionally, the 50-DMA is turning up and on February 5th the number of S&P 500 stocks above their respective 50-DMAs had shrunk from 92% to ~19%. While that oversold reading has been somewhat corrected by the ensuing rally, roughly 50% of the S&P 500 stocks still remain below their 50-DMAs. Then there was this insight from Minyanville professor Tony Dwyer:
“One indicator that has proven to be an excellent short and intermediate-term buy signal for the S&P 500 is when the percentage of NYSE issues trading above their 10-DMA drops below 10%. The most recent signal was (on) 2/18/10, which represents only the 8th unique instance (rapid multiple signals following the first signal were ignored) in the past 30 years. The average one month gain following the first signal was 5.4%, with a maximum gain of 11.2% and the worst case (and only) loss of 1.31% in 1991.”
Hence, we continue to believe the “selling stampede” is over. To us the question then becomes, will we extend the current rally off February’s “hammer lows,” or will the pattern resemble that of the 1978 and 1979 “October Ouches” whereby the DJIA lost between 10 – 12% in a few short weeks and then based for a month, or two, before giving investors a decent rally. Worth noting is that the DJIA never went decidedly below those “hammer lows,” as can be seen in the attendant chart.
In past missives we have suggested many names for your consideration like CVS (CVS), Cenovus Energy (CVE), Home Depot (HD), Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), and numerous others that can be retrieved from previous reports. And as an aside, China reported last week that it has spent record sums on the importation of coal and liquefied natural gas, which is clearly positive for coal names like Walters Energy (WLT). This morning we give you yet another special situation, namely Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) using its 7.5%-yielding convertible preferred (GDPAN/$35.60). As always, terms and details should be vetted before purchase.
The call for this week: Recently, various economic reports have softened. Why this should come as a surprise is a mystery to us given the stock market’s decline, the employment situation, a political environment that is disgusting on both sides, and a winter that is now legend. However, “Life isn’t about waiting for the storms to pass. It’s about learning to dance in the rain!” Clearly, we are currently “dancing,” thinking the “selling stampede” is over with the only question being, “do we extend the rally off of the February 4th and 5th ‘hammer lows,’ or do we base for awhile as in the aforementioned 1978/1979 examples?” What does concern us was best written by East Shore Partner’s creditable Joan McCullough. To wit:
“George Will said it best when he talked about the equality of opportunity vs. the equality of outcomes. Where the former requires self-determination, the latter requires dependence on the government. Make no mistake about it, we are now all about the ‘equality of outcomes,’ where it only matters, for example, that all adults by age 21, will have 4-year college degrees regardless of ability to write a coherent sentence or multiply 3 x 2.”
I Should Have!
February 22, 2010
“Oscar Wilde said he could resist anything but temptation. But doing something you know you shouldn’t is easier if you can convince yourself that this will be the last time you indulge, that you won’t do it again. So we convince ourselves that since we’ll be strong in the future, we can still indulge today. Whether it’s smoking, eating too much or going to the pub instead of the gym, we delude ourselves into thinking that we will take the more difficult path next time. A few years ago, two economists actually looked at the issue using gym membership data. They found that in a club in which non-members could pay a no-strings fee of $10 per visit, people preferred to pay the $70 per month for unlimited access. And since members only attended 4.3 times a month on average, they ended up paying an average $17 per visit. The authors concluded this to be clear evidence of ‘overconfidence about future self control.’ Investors understand the affliction all too well: a stock trades at $10 and we tell ourselves that we’re buyers at $8. But how many of us buy when it gets to $8? Some of us do, but most of us don’t. Most of us (I can’t be the only one!) convince ourselves that it’s going lower still: ‘I’ll buy at $7’ becomes ‘I’ll buy at $6’ and by the time it’s back at $8 we’re ‘waiting for a pullback.’ Each investor has their own way of circumventing this problem. But at root, such poor decision-making is a consequence of our fundamental underestimation today of the discipline and even courage we will require in the future.”
...Dylan Grice, Société Générale
“I should have bought Walter Energy (WLT/$79.70/Outperform) at $67, or North American Energy Partners (NOA/$10.03/Strong Buy) at $8, or (insert the stock of your choice), a week or so ago” . . . was the cry on the Street of Dreams last week as the “selling stampede” seems to have bottomed in the typical 17- to 25-session timeframe. Indeed, the climatic action of February 4th and 5th, whereby the DJIA lost 268 points on the 4th followed by another Dow Dive early the next day that reversed to upside leaving the senior index up 10 points, appears to have been the “low” we have been anticipating. That sense was reinforced last Tuesday when the NYSE experienced a 90% Upside Day, meaning that over 90% of the volume came on the upside with an attendant 170-point Dow Wow. It was the first 90% Upside Day since November 9, 2009 and was accompanied by a breadth reading of 5 advancing stocks for every 1 declining issue. The result elicited a strong expansion in Lowry’s “Buying Power Index” (read: demand) with an even more pronounced contraction in their “Selling Pressure Indicator” (read: supply). Moreover, the DJIA has now strung together more than three consecutive sessions on the upside, which also suggests that the “selling stampede” is over. Recall that stampedes tend to last 17 to 25 sessions, with only one- to three-session counter-trend attempts before exhausting themselves, and Tuesday was session 19 in the downside skein. Accordingly, the four-day positive “pop” should be viewed as a reversal of the nearly four-week “wilt.”
Setting the stage for the stock market’s reversal has been relatively constructive economic data implying that the first revisions of 4Q09 GDP (due 2/26) are unlikely to be major, a Greek Gotcha that appears to be on simmer, a Chinese New Year that has closed their financial markets, also putting on simmer near-term worries of further monetary tightening, and a host of other Street-friendly figures. Meanwhile, momentum traders, speculators, and model-driven players have been buying U.S. dollars, which suggests another change in the trend since stocks rallied right in the face of a stronger dollar. Even more surprising was crude oil’s spurt, as well as gold’s weekly climb, given the “buck’s bounce.” Indeed, counter intuitive as it seems given the greenback’s strength, the strongest sector last week was Basic Materials, which gained an eye-popping 5.02%.
Also of interest, at least to us since we are “long,” is that Japan’s economy expanded at a faster than expected 1.1% in 4Q09. Despite all of the negative nabobs, we continue to like Japan for a multiplicity of reasons. Apparently, so does Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackrock Advisory Services and former chief market strategist of Pequot Capital and Morgan Stanley. According to Byron, “Japanese stocks will be the best investment among the world’s biggest markets.” He goes on to note, “Everybody who could sell Japan has sold Japan. Everyone is on one side of the boat. My view is that we have a pretty good chance of having this one be the best of the major industrial markets. It’s not a boom, but things are getting better.” Obviously we agree and have been recommending tranching into the Japan Equity Fund (JEQ/$5.33) and Japan Smaller Capitalization Fund (JOF/$7.78). As the savvy folks at the GaveKal organization opine, if China can change its business model from one of “labor productivity” to one of “capital productivity” (to gain more efficiencies on capital), it is hugely bullish for Japan because Japan does more business with China than it does with the United States.
Since world currencies, and sovereign defaults, worries are swirling around the world’s financial markets, we thought we would conclude this morning’s missive with an excerpt from John Mauldin’s always insightful market strategy letter, especial since he and Kerri spent the weekend with us. The excerpt begins with an exchange between two other market mavens, namely David Kotok and Dennis Gartman. To wit:
Dennis,
Most of the time you and I are simpatico in view. But this time we are on totally opposite sides. You predict the EUR is toast. I think it emerges from this stronger than ever and that the weaker system is now the deficit-ridden US. I have organized and chaired conferences and seminars in Europe for the last decade as program chair of the GIC. The next one is in June in Paris and Prague, to which I am inviting you with this email. In the course of this decade those meetings have ranged in location from south (Italy) to Baltic (Estonia) to west (Ireland). All of these meetings were multinational. None of them had language or cultural barriers. All of these various hosts were gracious and hospitable and welcoming. All of them had goodwill among nationals of the various European countries. None of them had internal antagonism. Come with me in June and see this with your own eyes. Europe wants a hard currency and better economics and knows how to get it. The Greeks will end up better off and the politics will force it. I am a euro bull. All the best. By the way, I still want you to come fishing with me.
David [Kotok]
Dennis answered:
David,
I'm writing from Calgary this morning. Nice town, and not all that cold. Nice people out here in Canada's west. I always feel better about the world when I get to the Canadian west. We do indeed disagree on the EUR, David, and I hope you are right, but I fear you are wrong. These cultural differences are simply too great to be overcome. I have always been a EUR skeptic, and have been surprised that the whole experiment has lasted this long, but the Germans are not going to allow any of their money to be shipped to Athens to defend Greeks who have no pride in their own country [and are] tax-paying scofflaws. The Germans felt put-upon by the rest of Europe when they paid for the cost of reunification entirely, and they have no intention of now paying for Greeks who thumb their noses at law and fiscal responsibility. Right now, the market's sayin' I'm right, and for now I'm going to press the issue until the market tells me I'm wrong, David. It's all I know to do. Expecting Papandreaou to change his fiscal spots is simply not wise. He has been a profligate all his life; so too his father. It is genetic and it ain’t gonna change. Be well, my friend. We can disagree and still be impressed by one another's work. I know I am.
Dennis Gartman
John Mauldin concludes:
“Who's right? In an odd way, both of them. Let's look at what I think is the difference between my two friends. If you read European papers and briefings by serious economists and euro politicians, the idea of the euro zone breaking up is simply unthinkable to them. So much time and effort was put into creating the euro to begin with that there is a lot of vested interest in keeping it. (And by the way, let me be clear that the world is better off with a viable euro.) When David goes to Europe, as he often does, he meets with the top tier of business, investment banking, and central banking circles. And they assure him they will figure this out. These are the thought leaders who brought the euro together in the first place. Dennis listens to the trading floors and people in the streets. He was a man born in the trading pits. He rightly looks at the politics of Greece and Germany and says that is a "dog that won't hunt." In the short term, a Greek default will put significant pressure on the European banking system and through that the euro. But it is not the end of the world for the euro. Ultimately, in the grand scheme of things, the value of the euro, within limits, is not significant. If it falls to dollar parity there are winners and losers, of course. European exporters will be delighted. So will be their farmers. If you are a consumer buying goods outside the euro zone, you will not be as happy. But the valuation of the euro is not in and of itself a reason for the euro to disappear. At one time it was $0.82. Then over $1.60. All currencies fluctuate, some more than others. What destroys them is political malfeasance. What would put the euro at risk of a bad political decision? A Greek bailout without serious conditions would be the one thing that could be a very bad start to a downward spiral. If Greece is bailed out, then why not Portugal or Spain or Ireland? What about the emergency room crisis that is Austrian banks?
The line has to be drawn, and it has to be a hard line. And basically, what David is saying is that the serious leaders with whom he is in contact get it. But it is not certain how things will play out. Will Greek politicians and unions blink when faced with reality? Polls show that a majority of Greeks now favor making serious budget cuts. And the reality is that they will lose access to the credit markets if they do not make major spending cuts and get some kind of pan-European guarantee for their new debt. Losing access to the credit markets will mean even more (and immediate!) drastic cuts. The real choice for the Greeks is whether to stay in the monetary union. Of course, leaving and defaulting on their debt also cuts them off from the credit markets. It is a sad reality they face.”
Well said John!
The call for this week: John Mauldin and I discussed the “state of the state” as we cruised around the Gulf of Mexico in my boat yesterday while wearing our Minyanville hats. John is more worried about deflation, while I remain worried about inflation. This morning, however, the equity markets don’t seem to be worried about either as gold, and crude oil, are relatively flat and the pre-opening S&P 500 futures are better by some 4 points. We think the trading lows are “in” and have tilted accounts accordingly.
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