“Compelling Valuation, or Value Trap?”
February 6, 2012
“Valuations for U.S. equities have been stuck below the five-decade average for the longest period since Richard Nixon’s presidency; a sign investors don’t trust earnings even after a three-year bull market. Analysts estimate profits in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will reach a record $104.78 this year after increasing 125 percent since the end of 2009, the fastest expansion in a quarter century, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. American companies are boosting income so much that even after stocks doubled, the S&P 500 hasn’t traded above its 16.4 mean ratio for 446 days, the longest stretch since the 13 years beginning in 1973.”
... Bloomberg 1/30/12
I was interviewed for the aforementioned article, and while those comments were not used, my response to the reporters’ questions were pretty much along the same lines as the pundits’ words included in said quip. To be sure, investors have been freaked by the 11.9% decline in the S&P 500 (SPX/1344.90) since 2000 (aka, the lost decade), the 2000 – 2002 Tech Tragedy, the 2008 Financial Fiasco, Euroquake, the Flash Crash, Flash Trading in general, Dark Pools, Huddles, etc. The result has left the average investor with the feeling the game is rigged and the “little guy” doesn’t have a chance. Hence, they don’t participate, leading to the longest stretch where the SPX has not traded above its mean 16.4x P/E ratio in decades. Yet the real reason for investors’ fears is that they did not manage the risk when they should have.
Indeed, the reason for investors’ “stock shunning” is simple ... most do not adhere to the main tenant proffered in Benjamin Graham’s book “The Intelligent Investor.” To wit, “The essence of portfolio management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” Or as my father says, “If you manage the downside the upside will take care of itself; avoid the big loss.” “The management of risk,” what a novel concept, yet it is unpracticed by many investors. Case in point, in March and April of last year my “call” was to raise some cash by selling partial long stock positions, allowing long-term capital gains to accrue to portfolios. The majority of responses I received to that strategy were, “Hey Jeff, the stock market is going up, why should I sell some of my stocks?” The reality is, that was precisely why you should have rebalanced some of your stock positions that had grown into too big a portfolio “bet” because they had rallied so much. But instead, what happened? Most participants failed to heed that advice and thus suffered through a 19.6% decline in the SPX between May and August. Regrettably, because they didn’t manage the risk, they panicked at the August “lows” and sold when we were actually recommending recommitting capital to equities.
What inevitably happens when a portfolio begins to erode, investors are told, “No one can time the market; and that it is time in the market not timing the market.” Or, “If you miss the 10 best days in the market your total return falls significantly.” Of course, investors are never told that if you miss the 10 worst days your returns swamp the return of investors who stayed the course and rode the “ups,” as well as the “downs.” Now I admit, n-o-b-o-d-y can consistently “time” the market on a weekly or a daily basis; yet, there are numerous indicators that tell us when we should be aggressive, and when we should be defensive. Moreover, you can pretty much count on me to sell 25% – 33% of any portfolio position if it is up 100% to rebalance that position; and, I don’t care if the gain is long-term or not. You can also count on me to take some kind of defensive action (sell, hedge, etc.) when something goes against me between 15% – 20%. Indeed, avoid the big loss.
Circling back as to why the SPX has remained below its median P/E multiple for the longest time in decades, in my opinion it’s because participants failed to manage the risk at the upside inflection points, putting themselves in a position of panic at the downside inflection points. So once again I will say it, the stock market is fear, hope, and greed only loosely connected to the business cycle – manage the risk! So where does all of this leave us? Well, I have been consistent in the belief there is going to be no double-dip recession, unless we talk ourselves into one, and the strengthening economic data reinforces that view. If correct, the SPX should earn somewhere between $100 and $110 in 2012. At 1344.90, the SPX is trading in the range of a 12.2x to 13.5x this year’s estimated earnings. The question then becomes, given the news backdrop what is the appropriate P/E level for those earnings? Using Bloomberg’s 16.4x median P/E multiple seems a bit too optimistic to me, yet even haircutting that P/E ratio to 14.5x earnings still gives investors plenty of room on the upside, provided they manage the risk.
Speaking of managing the risk, after being extremely bullish at the August 2011 “lows,” and wildly bullish at the October 4, 2011 “undercut” low (consistent with my 1978 and 1979 trading pattern analogies), I stayed positive on stocks into year-end, as well as into the new year. That said, I turned more cautious a few weeks ago because stocks had become very overbought (read: too much bullishness) in the short term, and most of the market’s internal energy had been used up in the upside dash from the October “lows” into the recent mid-January “high.” The only question I posed was, “Is this going to be a sideways correction, or are we going to get more of a pullback?” Whatever the pattern, I continued to suggest it would be a mistake to get too bearish. So far, it has been pretty much a sideways affair with the SPX only 17 points above where it was when the Buying Stampede ended on January 25th. Still, the SPX is two standard deviations above its 50-day moving average and consequently very overbought (again). Likewise, the McClellan Oscillator is back into overbought territory, many of the indices I follow are up against their respective downtrend lines, as seen by connecting their May 2011 highs with their July highs, none of my short-term indicators are bullish, near-term performance following upside “gaps” like last Friday’s typically has been poor, and there is the potential for a double-top in the DJIA (INDU/12862.23), which would be negated with a close above 13250. On the positive side are the fundamentals, various Dow Theory “buy signals,” huge sideline cash (read: the underinvested crowd), last night’s win by the New York Giants (Super Bowl Indicator), and the stock market’s internal energy is quietly being rebuilt.
Given the short-term “mixed metaphors,” while I still think it is a mistake to get too bearish, I also remain timid on a trading basis. So what are participants to do? Well, one tack to take is accumulating good companies with solid fundamentals and the potential of being acquired. Names mentioned over the past few months by our fundamental analysts that fit these criteria include: Anadarko Petroleum (APC/$84.34/Strong Buy); Big Lots (BIG/$43.59/Strong Buy); Casella Waste (CWST/$7.00/Strong Buy); Interactive Intelligence Group (ININ/$27.78/Outperform); Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG/$8.66/Outperform); Lumos Networks (LMOS/$16.23/Strong Buy); National Penn Bancshares (NPBC/$9.74/Strong Buy); and Oasis Petroleum (OAS/$31.91/Outperform). We have “sound bites” from our analysts on all of these companies underscoring the basis for our positive rating, and in many cases why the analyst believes the company is a potential acquiree; please see our recent fundamental research on these names.
The call for this week: Remember all those Negative Nabobs that caused you to panic and sell-out at the August lows? Or, the Bear Boos who told you the undercut low of October 4, 2011 was the start of a whole new leg to the downside? Then there was the Cowering Crowd that insisted the first half of 2012 was going to be terrible. Such rants have left the world profoundly underinvested in U.S. equities. So when you are thinking of getting really bearish, study the attendant chart from our friends at Riverfront, and sourced to Intrinsic Research, which shows revenues, earnings, and the SPX’s share price for the past decade (through 12/8/11). Revenues and earnings are at all-time highs, yet the SPX is ~13.5% below its October 2007 “high;” indeed, “Strange brew trying to get through to you…” (Cream 1967; Eric Clapton at his finest).
“Precisely Watson?”
January 30, 2012
Sherlock Holmes: “And, then there was the event of the dog barking in the night.”
Dr. Watson: “But Holmes, there was no dog barking in the night!”
Sherlock Homes: “Precisely Watson!”
According to Wikipedia (as paraphrased by me):
It is precisely on this distinction that Holmes bases his insight. When the inspector asks, “Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention? Holmes responds, “To the curious incident of the dog in the night.” But, protests the inspector, “The dog did nothing in the night.” To which Holmes delivers the punch line, “That was the curious incident.”
For Holmes, the absence of barking is the turning point of the case: the dog must have known the intruder. Otherwise, he would have made a fuss. For us, the absence of barking is something that is all too easy to forget. We don’t even dismiss things that aren’t there; we don’t remark on them to begin with. But often, they are just as telling and just as important – and would make just as much difference to our decisions – as their present counterparts. How asking what isn’t there can help us make better decisions.
And, last week there was indeed a “dog barking in the night” as Chesapeake (CHK/$22.05/Market Perform) announced it was shutting down numerous natural gas wells due to low gas prices, a signpost coincident with many “bottoms.” On that announcement natural gas futures went from $2.23 per MMcf to $2.75 into last Friday’s closing price. That’s a 23% upside reversal and likely sets the low water mark for natural gas. While our Houston-based research team doesn’t believe it, and they have been more right than me, I think the “lows” for natural gas are “in.” Certainly, major corporations think there is a future for natural gas given the buyout activity over the past few years in the natural gas space. Names for your consideration that are favorably rated by our fundamental analysts include: Anadarko Petroleum (APC/$79.32/Strong Buy); EnCana (ECA/$19.60/Outperform); Williams Companies (WMB/$28.55/Outperform); and Devon Energy (DVN/$65.01/Outperform).
Speaking to Devon, I have mentioned this company before, sparked by my friends at the “must have” Bespoke Investment Group. To wit, January 17th’s missive stated:
“In business school they teach you that investing is all about earnings, and while I think fear, hope, and greed play a role in the investing equation, over the long term earnings indeed play the dominant role. Realizing this, the good folks at Bespoke have assembled a list of companies that have consistently reported the strongest earnings since March 2009 that report between now and February 24th. Names favorably rated by our fundamental analysts making said list include: Citrix Systems (CTXS/$65.14/Outperform); Devon Energy (DVN/$65.01/Outperform); and Tempur-Pedic (TPX/$70.09/Strong Buy).”
Most recently, our exploration and production analyst Andrew Coleman had this to say about Devon:
“On January 5th, we upgraded Devon to a Strong Buy from Outperform. Earlier this week, Devon announced a $2.2 billion joint venture with the Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration & Production Corporation (SIPC). The deal gives SIPC a 33% working interest in Devon's 1.2 million acres across five New Venture plays (e.g. Niobrara, Ohio Utica, and Tuscaloosa Marine shales as well as the Mississippi Lime and the Michigan basin). We value the transaction at $5,500 per acre overall. As a result of the deal, we are raising our production growth expectations for 2012 from 7.5% to 10% (vs. peers at 16%).”
Interestingly, the reciprocal to my natural gas “dog barking in the night” theme is Apple (AAPL/$447.28), which had a “blow out” earnings quarter last week. Indeed, Apple reported 1Q12 sales of $46.33 billion and profits of $13.1 billion. That was the second highest quarterly profit for any company ever! Such metrics lifted the company’s cash hoard to $97.6 billion, making its cash position larger than the market capitalization of 448 of the companies in the S&P 500. Apple sold 37 million iPhones in the quarter for a y/y growth rate of 128%; and, has now sold a total of 315 million iPhones, iPads, and iPod Touch devices. On the earnings release Apple’s shares leapt from $420.41 (last Tuesday’s close) to Wednesday’s opening price of $454.44, making Apple the world’s most valuable company ($417 billion) by exceeding Exxon’s (XOM/$85.83/Market Perform) market capitalization of $413 billion. Clearly, an astounding quarterly report that caused one old Wall Street wag to exclaim, “When the news can’t get any better I sell.”
Turning to the stock market, in last week’s report I wrote:
“The recent rally has not been accompanied by a noticeable increase in Buying Demand as measured by Lowry’s Buying Power Index. Rather the rally has occurred more from a reduction in Selling, which is reflected in Lowry’s Selling Pressure Index. Then too, the percentage of stocks above their respective 10-day moving averages (DMAs) has failed to confirm the upside and the New High list is not expanding. In fact, 40% of my short-term indicators are now bearish and none are bullish. Meanwhile, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator is overbought, the stock market does not have much internal energy left for a big rally, the S&P 500 is three standard deviations above its 20-DMA, the Volatility Index is telegraphing too much complacency, and we have negative seasonality for the next few weeks. Nevertheless, I continue think it is a mistake to get too bearish because I believe any pullback in the various indices will be contained.”
The conclusion to last Monday’s missive was to look for a short-term trading peak followed by either a pause or a correction that could pull the S&P 500 (SPX/1316.33) down to the 1280 – 1290 level. And, the week turned out to be just a “pause” saved by a rally attempt on the more dovish than expected FOMC statement. While the pause didn’t really correct the overbought nature of the NYSE McClellan Oscillator (see the chart on page 3), it has somewhat rebuilt the stock market’s internal energy. It should be noted the D-J Industrial Average (INDU/12660.46) edged above its July 2011 closing high on an intraday basis last Thursday, as well as that the new rally highs in the INDU and SPX have been confirmed by new rally highs in the Cumulative Net Points and Cumulative Volume Indices. Meanwhile, the NYSE Advance/Decline Line continues to move to new all-time highs. Interestingly, given the year-to-date strength, there have been no 90% Upside Days, a reflection of the aforementioned reduced volatility. Also of interest is that unlike prior quarters fundamental analysts are not raising their earnings estimates as earnings season is underway. This could be because the current earnings “beat rate” is not nearly as robust as past quarters.
To be sure, I have repeatedly commented that earnings comparisons were going to get more difficult because the trailing four quarter’s earnings reports have been so strong; and, that’s precisely what is happening. For example, with 180 of the S&P 500 companies reporting, there has been 1.81 upside earnings surprises for each disappointment versus a more normal ratio of 3:1. Accordingly, it makes sense to screen for companies producing “Triple Plays” – that would be companies beating earnings and revenue estimates and also raising forward earnings guidance. Three names from our research universe that qualify as Triple Plays and are favorably rated by our fundamental analysts for your consideration, include: Arctic Cat (ACAT/$30.65/Strong Buy); Caterpillar (CAT/$111.28/Outperform); and Xilinx (XLNX/$35.99/Outperform).
The call for this week: Well, I am traveling the balance of this week to see institutional accounts, speak at an Investment Banking Conference, and present at a handful of retail seminars. Consequently, there will be no verbal strategy comments for the rest of the week. Therefore, I will leave you with these thoughts. The January Barometer has sounded the “all clear” signal with a monthly gain for the INDU of 3.36% and a 4.67% rise in the SPX. History suggests double-digit returns for the rest of the year with positive returns occurring more than 80% of the time. Two sectors have been the main drivers of this January Jump, namely Consumer Discretionary and Technology. Unsurprisingly, the Consumer Discretionary, Technology, Industrial, and the Materials sectors are all beating earnings estimates at the highest “beat rate,” while Consumer Staples, Energy, Financials, and Healthcare are not. While I remain somewhat timid on a short-term trading basis, I continue to believe the year of the Water Dragon will bestow the five Chinese blessings of harmony, virtue, riches, fulfillment, and longevity. That adds even more weight to my growing belief that 2012 will be about breakthroughs, not disasters.
P.S. – As an aside, maybe participants should consider that Warren Buffett is not paying too little a percent of income tax, but rather his secretary is paying too high a percent!
| Company Citations | ||||||
| Company Name | Ticker | Exchange | Currency | Closing Price | RJ Rating | RJ Entity |
| Anadarko Petroleum Corp. | APC | NYSE | $ | 79.32 | 1 | RJ & Associates |
| Apple Inc. | AAPL | NASDAQ | $ | 447.28 | NC | |
| Arctic Cat, Inc. | ACAT | NASDAQ | $ | 30.65 | 1 | RJ & Associates |
| Caterpillar Inc. | CAT | NYSE | US$ | 111.28 | 2 | RJ LTD. |
| Chesapeake Energy Corp. | CHK | NYSE | $ | 22.05 | 3 | RJ & Associates |
| Citrix Systems Inc. | CTXS | NASDAQ | $ | 65.14 | 2 | RJ & Associates |
| Devon Energy Corporation | DVN | NYSE | $ | 65.01 | 2 | RJ & Associates |
| EnCana Corporation | ECA | TSX | C$ | 19.58 | 2 | RJ LTD. |
| Exxon Mobil Corp. | XOM | NYSE | $ | 85.83 | 3 | RJ & Associates |
| Tempur-Pedic International Inc. | TPX | NYSE | $ | 70.09 | 1 | RJ & Associates |
| The Williams Companies, Inc. | WMB | NYSE | $ | 28.55 | 2 | RJ & Associates |
| Xilinx, Inc. | XLNX | NASDAQ | $ | 35.99 | 2 | RJ & Associates |
Notes: Prices are as of the most recent close on the indicated exchange and may not be in US$. See Disclosure section for rating definitions. Stocks that do not trade on a U.S. national exchange may not be approved for sale in all U.S. states. NC=not covered.
Everybody’s Unhappy!?
January 23, 2012
“Money managers are unhappy because 70% of them are lagging the S&P 500. Economists are unhappy because they do not know what to believe: this month’s forecast of a strong economy or last month’s forecast of a weak economy. Technicians are unhappy because the market refuses to correct and gets more and more extended. Foreigners are unhappy because due to their underinvested status in the U.S. they have missed a big double play: a big currency move plus a big stock market move. The public is unhappy because they just plain missed out on the party after being scared into cash. It almost seems ungrateful for so many to be unhappy about a market that has done so well. Unhappy people would prefer the market to correct to allow them to buy and feel happy, which is just the reason for a further rise? Frustrating the majority is the market’s primary goal.”
... Bob Farrell, Merrill Lynch; September 1989
The bears are unhappy since the Santa rally, which began last Thanksgiving, has given the short-sellers no comfortable place to cover their shorts. Last week the bears suffered even more angst as most of the indices I follow tagged new reaction highs. The upside skein from the December 19th “low” has left the senior index better by ~8.1%, and up an eye-popping 13.3% since Thanksgiving. Counting the trading days from that mid-December “low” shows the rally has now encompassed 21 sessions with no more than a 1 – 3 session pause and/or correction. That makes this a fairly long of tooth “buying stampede.” Recall, buying-stampedes typically last 17 – 25 sessions, with only 1-3 session pauses/corrections along the way, before they exhaust themselves on the upside. It just seems to be the rhythm of the “thing” in that it takes that long to get participants bullish enough to throw in the towel and “buy ‘em” right before the markets peak and have a downside correction. Moreover, during the current stampede just about everything has been “run,” including all the sectors punctuated by the Banks +11.6% performance YTD. Accordingly, the only thing missing for a short-term “top” is a final burst to the upside driven by short-covering. My sense is this will occur into tomorrow night’s State of the Union address, which should be followed by a post address letdown for the stock market.
To be sure, the recent rally has not been accompanied by a noticeable increase in Buying Demand as measured by Lowry’s Buying Power Index. Rather the rally has occurred more from a reduction in Selling, which is reflected in Lowry’s Selling Pressure Index. Then too, the percentage of stocks above their respective 10-day moving averages (DMAs) has failed to confirm the upside and the New High list is not expanding. In fact, 40% of my short-term indicators are now bearish and none are bullish. Meanwhile, the NYSE McClellan Oscillator is overbought, the stock market does not have much internal energy left for a big rally, the S&P 500 (SPX/1315.38) is three standard deviations above its 20-DMA, the Volatility Index (VIX/18.28) is telegraphing too much complacency, and we have negative seasonality for the next few weeks. Nevertheless, I continue to think it is a mistake to get too bearish because I believe any pullback in the various indices will be contained.
My bullishness was reinforced last week during a conversation with Frederick “Shad” Rowe, the sagacious general partner of Dallas-based Greenbrier Partners. Summing the conversation, we decided the world is becoming richer faster than debt is expanding. This is not an unimportant point since everyone seems to be focusing on the “debt bomb,” which likely means it is the wrong question. Clearly, some folks are living above their means, some below, but many are living within their means, which can be seen in the Household Debt Service Ratio chart that is plumbing generational lows. Manifestly, the world is getting more prosperous and is producing more for less driven by technology. Truly, it is “one world” and we should start thinking of the U.S. as a state within that “one world.” This view is plainly stated in Federal Express’ annual report. To wit:
“We’ve reached a tipping point in how the world works. The largest economy in the world is no longer the economy of any one country – it’s the economy of global trade of goods and services. Value: $18.3 trillion in 2010. At FedEx, our job is to facilitate these transactions, the heart of commerce, by providing access – moving goods across the global supply chain.”
Or, how about this from Google’s annual report:
“Google is a global technology leader focused on improving the ways people connect with information. We aspire to build products that improve the lives of billions of people globally. Our Mission is to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful.”
One world indeed and there are actually a lot of good things happening. While the world is still a violent place, it is becoming less so as the wars we have been fighting come to an end. Additionally, the U.S. finally appears to be heading down the road of energy self-sufficiency, which should increase employment, and the U.S. dollar is currently the least unattractive currency in the world. Furthermore, as scribed in previous reports, there is a huge hidden layer of the U.S. economy that is becoming the engine of growth and wealth creation; and, this hidden layer is misrepresented in corporate financial reports. Surprisingly, the equity markets appear to value this hidden layer at approximately zero suggesting huge opportunity for investors to profit. The hidden layer referenced is Organizational Capital and Knowledge Capital, both of which reside under the macro moniker – Intangible Capital – so often mentioned in these missives. As the astute GaveKal organization writes:
“When we account for intangibles the picture of the U.S. economy changes. It is revealed that we are saving more and investing more than we thought. This means our economy is much more dynamic than we thought. This result is relevant in view of the perception of a low rate of saving in the U.S. economy, particularly because existing measures exclude much of the investment in knowledge capital that is a defining feature of the modern U.S. economy. ... Validating intangibles is the key to eliminating the guesswork in valuing a company correctly. Indeed, this ‘new view’ of intangibles suggests they are the missing link between financial accounting and financial valuation.”
These observations, taken in concert amid the backdrop of a world that is profoundly underinvested in U.S. equities, continues to leave me walking on the “sunny side” of Wall Street even though in the very short term I am looking for a trading peak. During the envisioned decline investors should consider companies playing to the Intangible Capital theme. While participants should study all investment situations for themselves, some names for your consideration from our research universe playing to the Intangible Capital theme, and favorably rated by our fundamental analysts, include: Micron (MU/$7.76/Strong Buy), Analog Devices (ADI/$39.78/Strong Buy), Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM/27.83/Outperform), Texas Instruments (TXN/$33.64/Outperform), Xilinx (XLNX/$35.77/Outperform), Nuance (NUAN/$29.08/Strong Buy), Google (GOOG/$585.99/Outperform), Delta Air (DAL/$9.41/Outperform), and Urban Outfitters (URBN/$25.40/Outperform). Of course there is a way to purchase all of these companies that are accumulators of Intangible Capital (and more) via the GaveKal Platform Company Fund (GAVIX/$11.18).
The call for this week: Last Thanksgiving I suggested the Santa rally was beginning. I stuck with that “call” into the new year. On January 3, 2012 I stated that session felt like an “emotional peak” and that January 10, 2012 felt like the “price peak.” Subsequently I wrote, “The only question in my mind is if the markets are going to have a pullback into the 1230 – 1240 support zone, or go sideways to correct their overbought condition and allow the internal energy to be rebuilt.” So far, it has been a sideways consolidation until last week’s upside breakout causing one old Wall Street wag to exclaim, “Breakout or fake-out?!” On a short-term basis I think it is a fake-out believing a trading top is due this week ...
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