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Fed Policy Outlook

By Dr. Scott Brown

Fed Policy Outlook – November 7, 2008

  • The economic data remained terrible.

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Fed Policy Outlook – October 31, 2008

  • The Fed cut by 50 bps, but the Fed funds rate had been trending lower than the new target.

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Fed Policy Outlook – October 24, 2008

  • The Fed is widely expected to lower rate further on October 29, but will it be 25 or 50 bps.

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Fed Policy Outlook – October 10, 2008

  • In a coordinated move, the Fed and other central banks cut short-term interest rates by 50 bps.

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Fed Policy Outlook – September 26, 2008

  • The focus was on the Treasury bailout plan.

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Fed Policy Outlook – September 23, 2008

  • The Fed left rates unchanged, disappointing those hoping for a cut amid the ongoing financial crisis.

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Fed Policy Outlook – September 5, 2008

  • The August employment data were terrible.

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Fed Policy Outlook – August 29, 2008

  • In August, most Fed officials expected the next move to be a hike, but there’s no hurry.

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Fed Policy Outlook – August 1, 2008

  • The FOMC is widely expected to leave short-term interest rates unchanged, but may slightly tweak the language in the policy statement.

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Fed Policy Outlook – July 25, 2008

  • The economic data were mixed, but generally soft.

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Fed Policy Outlook – July 18, 2008

  • In his monetary policy testimony, Fed Chairman Bernanke presented an uncertain economic outlook.

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Fed Policy Outlook – July 3, 2008

  • The economic data were mixed, but generally weak.

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Fed Policy Outlook – June 13, 2008

  • The market is now pricing in Fed rate hikes.

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Fed Policy Outlook – June 6, 2008

  • Fed Chairman Bernanke signaled more concern about the dollar and inflation pressures.

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Fed Policy Outlook – May 23, 2008

  • The Fed is unlikely to cut short-term interest rates anytime soon.

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Fed Policy Outlook – April 25, 2008

  • The Fed is likely to cut rates by another 25 basis points, but signal that further cuts are unlikely.

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Fed Policy Outlook – April 11, 2008

  • The Fed expects a contraction in the near term, but inflation fears may prevent an aggressive cut.

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Fed Policy Outlook – April 4, 2008

  • The economic data remained weak, but the stock market focused ahead to the recovery.

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Fed Policy Outlook – March 20, 2008

  • The FOMC cut 75 bps and, dismissing inflation concerns, hinted that further rate cuts were likely.

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Fed Policy Outlook – March 14, 2008

  • Credit market troubles have contributed to expectations of a larger Fed rate cut.

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Fed Policy Outlook – February 29, 2008

  • Bernanke said the Fed is serious about price stability, but downside risks are the greater worry.

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Fed Policy Outlook – February 22, 2008

  • The markets were battered with alternative fears of recession and inflation.

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Fed Policy Outlook – February 15, 2008

  • Bernanke presented a somber economic outlook.

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Fed Policy Outlook – February 8, 2008

  • The stock market was hit by fears of recession. Bond prices rose in a flight to quality, as odds of further Fed rate cuts increased.

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Fed Policy Outlook – February 1, 2008

  • The Fed cut by another 50 bps.

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Fed Policy Outlook – January 18, 2008

  • Economic data were mixed, but generally consistent with slower growth.

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Fed Policy Outlook – January 11, 2008

  • Chairman Bernanke indicated that the Fed stands ready to ease more aggressively

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Fed Policy Outlook – January 4, 2008

  • The economic data were weaker than expected, fanning fears of “recession.”

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Fed Policy Outlook – December 21, 2007

  • The Fed’s Term Auction Facility met strong demand. Consumer spending was strong in November.

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Fed Policy Outlook – December 7, 2007

  • The November jobs report solidified expectations of a 25-bp cut from the Fed on December 11.

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Fed Policy Outlook – November 30, 2007

  • Fed Chairman Bernanke and Vice Chairman Kohn opened the door for another rate cut.

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The opinions offered by Dr. Brown should be considered a part of your overall decision-making process. For more information about this report – to discuss how this outlook may affect your personal situation and/or to learn how this insight may be incorporated into your investment strategy – please contact your financial advisor or use the convenient Office Locator to find our office(s) nearest you today.

All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates (RJA) at this date and are subject to change. Information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing report is accurate or complete. Other departments of RJA may have information which is not available to the Research Department about companies mentioned in this report. RJA or its affiliates may execute transactions in the securities mentioned in this report which may not be consistent with the report's conclusions. RJA may perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking business from, any company mentioned in this report. For institutional clients of the European Economic Area (EEA): This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA Institutional Clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted.
 

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