Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut

“Buy and Hold Is Dead?!”
December 1, 2008

“The other reliable indication of the start of an upward swing is afforded when, after a period of declining prices or, less frequently, dullness, the market advances or refuses to go down following the receipt of bad news. It is not enough that there should be temporary strength in these circumstances; the best of the market position should be applied for an entire day, and stocks should be bought only when, after thorough dissemination of unfavorable news, the market finally advances above the point where it was before the news was received.”

. . . Don Guyon, from the book “One-Way Pockets”

“One-Way Pockets” was written by an unknown author using the nom de plume of Don Guyon. The book was first published in 1917, while we first encountered it in the 1970s after hearing it was legendary strategist Bob Farrell’s favorite book on investing. The aforementioned quote, which can be found on page 36 of said book, seems to be as insightful today as it was 91 years ago because human nature doesn’t change. Speaking to “the market advances or refuses to go down following the receipt of bad news,” two stocks that have been in a death spiral for months “coughed up” some pretty horrific news recently, but their share prices actually went up. Not only did they rally, Citigroup (C/$8.29) has gained 172% since a week ago Friday while General Motors (GM/$5.24) tacked on 136%. Moreover, since the October 10, 2008 “capitulation alert,” the economic news has been dour yet stocks have not meaningfully traveled lower. As Barron’s noted a week ago:

“For a bullish spin, though a weak one, the market has not made a significantly lower low since October 10th. The word ‘significantly’ is important because some major market indexes, including the Nasdaq, have indeed been setting new lows. But the trend, if we can call it that, has been more sideways than decidedly down. A better, but still weak, bullish angle comes from trading volume, or the amount of money committed to either the bull or bear side each day. All of the higher volume days that have occurred since October 10th have come on days when prices rose. Theoretically, when prices are going up and volume increases, it means that investors are chasing the market higher. That's a sure sign of demand. Subsequent declines occurred with lower volume, so we can conclude that the desire to sell was not quite as strong as it was before October 10th.”

Recall that on October 10th that of the 3,130 stocks traded on the NYSE, a shocking 2,901 of them made new yearly “lows.” Accordingly, that 92.7% “new low” ratio registered the first “capitulation alert” in decades. Interestingly, all subsequent lower price readings for the major market indices were accompanied by “new low” ratios nowhere near as austere. And, when the DJIA’s (8829.04) nadir arrived on November 20th, of the 3,271 stocks traded on the NYSE that day, only 1,894 made new yearly lows (a 58% ratio). Further, at those November lows the S&P 500 (SPX/896.24) had lost some 52% of its value since its October 2007 “high.” Categorically, I can find nowhere in the market’s history where the major market averages have fallen by 50% and there has not been a substantial “throwback rally,” even if the averages eventually went lower. Additionally, while the S&P 500 marginally undercut its 2002 price lows, the DJIA did not, and that’s a huge downside non-confirmation.

When such pricing action is combined with other metrics like the oft-mentioned oversold condition, the Volatility Index (VIX/55.84) closing below its 50-day moving average, the extremely bearish investors’ sentiment readings (read that as bullish), the lowest percentage of analysts’ “buy” ratings EVER, etc., was it any wonder that over the past five sessions the S&P 500 registered one of its best weekly skeins in history? As our technical analyst Art Huprich presciently wrote a week ago:

“As a result of Friday’s action, which I think was very important psychologically, the SPX recaptured its breakdown point of 768 (2002 low), after only one day. This is why I felt it was better to wait until the end of the week and possibly this month, before passing judgment. I still feel that way! Consequently, I am not yet willing to say that the SPX has violated its 2002 lows. I believe the SPX and DJIA are at critical inflection points! Within the context of a long-term ‘structurally fair’ market, in which the DJIA moved sideways for a decade or more, similar to 1966 to 1982, 1929 to 1949, and 1901 to 1915, in light of testing five to six year lows, this is a spot for a stock market bottom to attempt to form.”

Inferentially, another important observation can also be gleaned from the book “One-Way Pockets.” To wit – at the top of bull markets participants want to be investors; at the bottom of bear markets participants want to be traders. To this point, the media is recently replete with the mantra, “buy and hold is dead!” I heard it numerous times again last week, and when one particularly wrong-way wonk uttered it, after being bullish for the past 10 years with a buy and hold strategy, I found myself screaming at the TV screen, “Jack, you are an idiot!” Ladies and gentlemen, the time to be a trader was a year ago, not here at the best valuation metrics seen in a decade. As Société Générale’s James Montier states:

“This is a value investor’s version of heaven. From a bottom-up perspective, the equity market is offering some excellent companies at truly bargain prices for those with the fortitude to shut their eyes, or at least switch off their screens and buy. With all these opportunities available I have never been more bullish. Will I be early? Almost certainly yes, but if I can find assets with attractive returns and I have a long time horizon I would be mad to turn them down.”

Even a somewhat more cautious Barton Biggs of Traxis Partners recently stated, “I have no idea when the next bull market starts, but I do think we are setting up for the mother of all bear market rallies. Stocks around the world are cheap, stock markets have been obliterated and are deeply oversold, the fabric for economic healing is developing, and we must be pretty close to maximum bearishness.” Plainly we agree, which is why we have been recommending that accounts position themselves accordingly since the October 10th “capitulation alert.” More recently, we noted a “capitulation alert” was registered for commodities as well.

The call for this week: Last week Wall Street experienced one of its biggest weekly gains since the five-day surge that ended the great bear market of 1929 – 1932. We think the “lift” was driven by America’s new regime, as well as the Citigroup bailout, which unlike the previous bailouts did not wipe out the equity holders. According to the good folks at Bespoke, however, following such skeins the markets historically have retreated the next week by 2.4%. Nevertheless, we have had ten 90% downside days since September 2008. Then on November 24th we had a 90% upside day. Based on the 70-year history of Lowry’s data, a series of 90% down-days followed by a 90% up-day often signals the end of a bear market. Like Barton Biggs, we too don’t know when the next bull market will begin, but if the DJIA can better its November 4th high of 9625.28, and is confirmed by the D-J Transportation Average (DJTA/3215.20) besting its November 4th high of 4071.81, it would certainly be a step in the right direction. Whatever the outcome, we have, and continue, to treat the October 10th “capitulation lows” as a bottom for the short-to-intermediate term, until proven wrong. Still, this is the most difficult market we have seen since the 1970s, which is why we are employing a hedging strategy and continue to emphasize clean balance sheets, decent fundamentals, and dividends. We continue to invest accordingly.

“Geithner Gotcha”
November 24, 2008

“In short, it comes down to a simple bet: Either markets are correct, policy easing will prove to be ineffectual and we are looking at a deflationary depression (in which case a broad spectrum of economic thinking is wrong – from Keynes to Friedman). Or markets are wrong; the reflationary policies of the world’s financial leaders will mitigate the credit crisis and put the global economy on the road to recovery (by mid-2009 if past indicators are correct). Our readers know that we bet on the latter. However, that does not necessarily mean that we advocate piling into stocks. There is simply so much money to be made in the credit markets that the risk/reward scenario in equities cannot compete. Indeed, in credit markets you do not even have to bet whether we are facing a deflationary bust or not – you just have to believe these companies can repay their debt. And, excluding financials, there are still a lot companies that remain cash-flow positive with strong balance sheets and whose likelihood of bankruptcy is very small.”

...GaveKal

As the astute GaveKal organization notes, “Either markets are correct, policy easing will prove to be ineffectual and we are looking at a deflationary depression, or markets are wrong (and) the reflationary policies of the world’s financial leaders will mitigate the credit crisis and put the global economy on the road to recovery. Our readers know that we bet on the latter.” Obviously I agree with GaveKal’s views, and while there is no question that the current financial fiasco is likely the most serious since the Great Depression, this is NOT the Great Depression. To be sure, the economy is nowhere near as impaired as it was back in the 1930s, as the following quip from Merrill Lynch makes clear:

“This is not the 1930s all over again. The government and the central banks are not sitting idly by as banks fail this time around. We have automatic stabilizers in place like welfare and unemployment insurance. Back in the 1930s, 40% of Americans lived in rural areas – a dust bowl today wouldn’t exactly have the same impact on today’s highly urban economy. Today’s labor market is far more flexible and productive. Back in the 30s, GDP plunged 27%, real private investment collapsed 87%, consumer spending contracted by 41%, industrial production plunged 54%, personal income fell 25%, the unemployment rate soared to 30%, and half the nation’s homeowners defaulted (not 10%), and 10,000 banks failed; and as over-saturated as we may be today, we don’t have that degree of excess capacity in the financial sector. Not that we are trying to sugar-coat the situation, but we need to put the current situation, which is an outlier, into perspective. It may be something more than just a garden-variety recession, but it is not the Great Depression.”

While not the Great Depression, we do think there will be a whiff of deflation over the coming few quarters. Recall, however, what Chairman Bernanke said in his 2002 speech about fighting deflation, as reprised by Merrill Lynch:

“Checking against Chairman Bernanke’s playbook for dealing with deflation we see that in 2002 he noted that the Fed could 1) target long-term yields, 2) purchase Agency debt, 3) offer direct loans to banks using a wide range of collateral, 4) purchase foreign bonds and municipals and, as a last resort, 5) use foreign exchange rates. Given that he has done numbers 2 and 3 and that 5 would not seem to be helpful in the current environment, it is important to consider the possibility that the Fed might choose to explore, as he put it, ‘A more direct method, which I personally prefer, would be for the Fed to begin announcing explicit ceiling for yields on longer-maturity Treasury debt.’”

Plainly Ben Bernanke is using, and/or considering, all the tools in his “toolbox” to dissuade the economy from plunging into a deflationary depression. Still, it appears that a pretty severe recession is in the works with 4Q08 GDP tracking toward a negative 5% reading; and, GDP is unlikely to turn positive before the second half of 2009. Adding to the deflationary, and recessionary, environment consumer prices (CPI) registered their largest monthly decline in the 61-year history of the data, ditto the PPI, unemployment claims leaped to their highest level since 2001, housing starts sank to their lowest level ever, permits for new houses also tumbled to their lowest level ever, and all of this caused the LEI (Leading Economic Indicators) to slide 0.8% in October. All of these indicators are setting the stage for an abysmal holiday selling season, telegraphed by last week’s -4.1% (year/year) collapse in nominal retail sales. In fact, according to Ed Hyman’s ISI organization, “The single best correlation for holiday sales has been the stock market in the months leading up to the Christmas season with a 61% correlation. With the severe global recession, intense competition, and the halving of commodity prices already, we are probably entering a period of deflation. This is setting up the weakest NOMINAL GDP since 1954, something we worry the country’s business isn’t prepared for.”

Meanwhile, the dour economic backdrop has caused analysts to lower their earnings forecasts on companies to the point whereby only 222 companies in the S&P 1500 have seen their earnings estimates increased. Obviously, this decline in earnings expectations has a caused a recalibration of P/E multiples with an attendant “hit” to stock prices. And last week that “hit” caused the S&P 500 to fall to its lowest closing level since April 1997, while other U.S. indexes set 5½-year lows. Moreover, the Wilshire 5000 index, the broadest measure of the U.S. markets, has now fallen by more than 50% since its peak 13 months ago; and Treasury yields also fell to record lows with the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond declining to lows last seen in the early 1960s. Interestingly, the combination of lower stock prices and higher Treasury prices caused the dividend yield on the S&P 500 to exceed the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond for the first time since 1958. That means that a shareholder of the S&P 500 needs NO capital gains to outperform the holder of long-dated government bonds. And maybe, just maybe, those valuation metrics are what caused Vivan Watsa, CEO of Fairfax Holding (FFH/$276.68) and one of the few investors who have played this downturn to a tee, turning $500 million into more than $2 billion in the past year, to remove all of his downside stock hedges. Specifically Mr. Watsa stated:

“Given the unprecedented decline of the equity markets during the past several months, we felt it was prudent to promptly inform our shareholders that we closed out our equity index total return swaps this week and effectively eliminated our equity portfolio hedge. While we believe the recession may be long and deep, we also believe that stock prices may have already discounted the worst of the economic decline. As value investors, we are finding an incredible number of investment opportunities across the world.”

For the past four weeks we too have spoken about finding numerous investment opportunities, citing things like The Wall Street Journal story that stated there are currently one in ten listed companies trading for less than the value of the cash and marketable securities on their balance sheets, as well as a list of companies that have increased their dividend every year for the last 20 years. And then there was this email of two weeks ago from one particularly bright portfolio manager, “I now have over 100 stocks on my watch list that are trading at, or below, book value and with superior fundamentals. Stocks, therefore, are too cheap and I am starting to buy for the first time this year.” Despite such investment opportunities, last week the DJIA slid below its October 10th low of 7882 that I had expected to mark the short/intermediate “low,” thus activating downside targets between 7200 (approximately the 2002 low) and 7500 (50% retracement of the 1982 to 2007 Dow Wow). And, on Thursday and Friday of last week the DJIA traveled well into that target zone, leaving only 13 stocks in the S&P 500 above their respective 200-day moving averages, and extremely oversold, as can be seen in the chart on page 4 from our friends at the invaluable Thechartstore.com. The Wednesday through Friday morning swoon lopped 1000 points off of the senior index, leaving participants in “crash mode,” but Friday afternoon ushered in the “Geithner Gotcha.”

For the last few weeks we have suggested that President-elect Obama could either adopt the FDR model, which would be disastrous for the economy and the markets, or he could step-up and provide leadership to fill the current leadership vacuum. Again as the GaveKal organization opined:

“Probably most important economic transformation which is about to occur is the transformation in personal leadership. Suppose you believe, as I do, that the financial meltdown triggered by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers was not a divinely ordained retribution for decades of greed and profligacy, but simply a bizarre accident, caused by the incompetence of the Bush Administration, particularly of Mr. Paulson. In that case, the arrival of a credible new economic team in Washington, led by respected figures such as Messrs Volcker, Summers and Geithner, could transform psychology in global financial markets. With house prices stabilizing and an inspiring new leader replacing the doltish President Bush, American consumer and business confidence could enjoy a similar resurgence.”

And, that appears to be precisely what happened late Friday. Hopefully, that mindset will continue this week.

The call for this week: We still think October 10th represented the capitulation “lows,” as can be seen in the S&P 500 chart on page 4 that shows the RSI and MACD indicators at their most oversold levels since the 1982. As Barron’s notes, “For a bullish spin, though a weak one, the market has not made a significantly lower low since Oct. 10th. The word ‘significantly’ is important because some major market indexes, including the Nasdaq, have indeed been setting new lows. But the trend, if we can call it that, has been more sideways than decidedly down. A better, but still weak, bullish angle comes from trading volume, or the amount of money committed to either the bull or bear side each day. All of the higher volume days that have occurred since Oct. 10 have come on days when prices rose. Theoretically, when prices are going up and volume increases, it means that investors are chasing the market higher. That’s a sure sign of demand. Subsequent declines occurred with lower volume, so we can conclude that the desire to sell was not quite as strong as it was before Oct. 10th.” And don’t look now, but cold weather has crept into the country, which should be positive for the energy stocks we have been recommending.

P.S. – We are traveling the balance of this week and will therefore be unable to do any verbal strategy comments.

“Toto, this certainly isn’t Kansas anymore?!”
... Dorothy from the “Wizard of Oz”
November 17, 2008

The holiday season officially began at the Saut household last weekend, for as I sat down in front of the TV to catch up on some overdue reading, the movie “The Wizard of Oz” appeared. Followers of our work know that three movies really put us in the holiday mood. “The Wizard of Oz” is always first, as well as prior to Thanksgiving. Following Turkey Day comes Frank Capra’s 1946 Christmas classic “It’s a Wonderful Life,” whose theme of a collapsing bank threatening to leave its president George Bailey destitute should resonate with participants as well today as it did in 1946. Finally, usually a few weeks before Christmas, comes George Seaton’s 1947 movie “Miracle on 34^th Street.” This morning, however, we focus on “The Wizard of Oz.”

While most people know “The Wizard of Oz” as one of the most popular films ever made, what is little known is that the book was based on an economic and political commentary surrounding the debate over “sound money” that occurred in the late 1800s. Indeed, L. Frank Baum’s book was penned in 1900 following unrest in the agriculture arena due to the debate between gold, silver, and the dollar standard. The book, therefore, is supposedly an allegory of these historical events, making the events easier to understand. In said book, Dorothy represents traditional American values. The Scarecrow portrays the American farmer, while the Tin Man represents the workers, and the Cowardly Lion depicts William Jennings Bryan. Recall that at the time Mr. Bryan was the official standard bearer for the “silver movement,” as well as the unsuccessful Democratic presidential candidate of 1896 who gave the “Crucified on the Cross of Gold” speech at that year’s Democratic National Convention. Interestingly, in the original story Dorothy’s slippers were made of silver, not ruby, implying that silver was the Populists’ solution to the nation’s economic woes. Meanwhile, the Yellow Brick Road was the gold standard, and Toto (Dorothy’s faithful dog) represented the Prohibitionists, who were an important part of the silverite coalition. The Wicked Witch of the West symbolizes President William McKinley; and the Wizard is Mark Hanna, who was the chairman of the Republican Party and made promises that he could not keep. Obviously, “Oz” is the abbreviation for “ounce.”

Plainly, the turmoil following the “1873 Coinage Act,” the “Sherman Silver Purchase Act of 1890,” and the subsequent panic, and depression, of 1893 left the phrase “time for a change” swirling across the country as citizens struggled to correct the numerous wrong-footed plans/schemes that were so hastily conceived by the country’s then elected “nimnods.” If that sounds familiar, it should, because as repeatedly noted in these missives following the Bear Stearns bailout a similar series of hastily conceived reactive, rather than thoughtfully conceived proactive, “plans” have been enacted only to subsequently find that they should have been constructed better. That happened again last week as Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson abandoned the Treasury’s plan/scheme to buy toxic assets under the original TARP legislation in lieu of “capital injections.” Ladies and gentlemen, this is a stunning reversal by “stammerin’ Hank,” who made “toxic asset” purchases the centerpiece of the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). His switch-and-bait tactics caused “howls” from Congress about how ANYONE can be rational when the “powers that be” change the rules of the game at whim?!

Change the rules indeed, for eliminating the short-sale “uptick rule” was one of the dumbest decisions I have seen in 38 years in this business. Of course it would not have been so bad if “they” would have strictly enforced the no “naked shorts” provision; but alas, for while there was much lip-service paid to this dirty little secret of Wall Street, not much has been done to correct it. Adding insult to injury, overnight “they” eliminated the ability of participants to sell-short nearly 800 different companies’ shares, some of which were NOT even financials; and then there was the $140 billion tax break for financials that “they” snuck by under the TARP legislation. Adding to the manipulative environment was the billions of dollars worth of pork-barrel spending, as well as “earmarks,” which also missed the radar screen. Or how about this game changer – according to The Wall Street Journal, “The New York Stock Exchange has begun allowing floor traders known as specialists to place orders for 30 minutes after the market closes in an unprecedented effort to deal with the wild swings in stock prices that have been occurring in the last minutes of trading.” Blatantly, this “game changer” is designed to manipulate stocks to show higher closing prices. No wonder the volatility has increased as participants are uncertain what “rules of the game” will show up tomorrow.

The ever changing rules have left retail investors disgusted, and liquidating positions, the hedge funds have been eviscerated, having lost half of their assets and likely to lose more, the mutual funds are getting net redemption, which leaves the buyers of last resort only those folks with “permanent capital,” namely pension funds and Warren Buffett. No wonder the volatility is legend; and, last week was no exception as we lost 660 points over the first three sessions of the week, rallied 552 points on Thursday in what looked like a one-day upside reversal, only to give much of Thursday’s triumph back in Friday’s last hour of trading where the senior index shed 449 points in just 45 minutes. While much of the final hour machinations were attributed to rumors that Congress was not going to bail out Detroit, the late-day dive was pretty disconcerting. Still, we are sticking with the view that October 10th represented the capitulation price lows when of the 3130 stocks that traded on the NYSE, an unbelievable 2901 of them made new yearly lows combined with 16-to-1 downside over upside volume. We also opined that the psychological lows were made on October 24th. That said, we have never given up on a full downside retest of the October 10th lows, which is why we have tended to use a hedging strategy for trading and investment positions. As often stated, in downside retests 60% of the time the previous lows hold; the 40% of the time they don’t stocks go lower, but not by much.

Obviously, we thought that was the case last Thursday when the S&P 500 (SPX/873.29) breeched its October 10th intraday low of 839.80 and went lower, but not by much. Reinforcing that view was the fact that the DJIA (8497.31) did NOT breech its respective October 10th intraday low of 7882.51, setting-up the potential for a huge downside non-confirmation. Moreover, of the 3268 stocks that traded on the NYSE, only 776 of them made new yearly lows in Thursday’s session. Interestingly, the DJIA/SPX’s pricing action since October 10th has traced out a spread triple-bottom in the charts. Often a strong move “up” from a third downside test, like we saw last Thursday, tends to develop into a strong rally as participants are caught in a “bear trap.” Stockcharts.com defines “bear trap” as, “A situation that occurs when prices break below a significant level and generate a sell signal, but then reverse course and negate the sell signal, thus ‘trapping’ the bears that acted on the signal with losses. A bear trap in another form of whipsaw.” Hopefully, that is what we experienced last week. This week should resolve that question.

The call for this week: The stage version of “The Wizard of Oz” begins at the Warner Theater in Washington D.C. on December 2nd. If past is prelude it will be a sellout. Why is Frank Baum’s play so popular in the nation’s capital? Our sense is that it’s because people inside the Beltway easily relate to fantasy! That’s why “they” continue to proffer reactively considered “schemes” rather than thoughtfully crafted proactive “plans.” Given the ever-changing “rules of the game,” no wonder the equity markets are having such a tough time gaining any upside traction, which is why we continue to employ a hedging strategy, as well as the strategy of being the “second mouse that gets the cheese.” Nevertheless, we are treating October 10^th as the capitulation panic low (until proven wrong) and remain hopeful that last week represented a triple-bottom in the charts for the DJIA and SPX. Further, the Commodity Research Bureau Index (CRB) recently registered a similar “capitulation low” reading. According to the institutional service “Chartworks,” “There have only been five instances (of this) since 1956. In each occurrence, once prices reversed up by producing a week with a higher high the index took no more than six weeks to reach the 20-week moving average.” Obviously, if the CRB is ripe for a rally, it would benefit the high-yielding commodity-centric convertible securities we have been recommending, as well as the Canadian dollar.

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