Weekly Newsletter 06/27/25

Good afternoon friends,

Happy Friday to all of you and hopefully this has been a productive week as we head into the weekend. Next week is fourth of July and my oh my how time flies as we head into the dog days of summer. Lets take a look at the capital markets. US equities higher in Friday mid day trading following solid gains on Thursday. S&P 500 and Nasdaq now both above their most recent record closes; major indices on track for strong weekly gains. Big tech largely higher, though TSLA-US a notable decliner. Other outperformers include apparel (NKE-US ), homebuilders, asset managers, building products, media, airlines, and semis. Laggards include energy, moneycenter banks, IBs, P&C insurers, networking/communications, biotech, airlines, A&D, and ag chemicals. Treasuries weaker with some curve flattening, with yields up 2-4bp; still on pace for big weekly gains. Dollar index up 0.1%. Gold down 1.9%, though off worst levels. WTI crude up 0.9%, but set for an ~11% weekly decline.

This week's upside continues to be driven by combination of positive geopolitical and trade updates, easing of Fed rate cut pricing, lower vol backdrop. Latest trade updates remain positive. Trump said Thursday US and China signed a trade deal, though offered no other details, while Commerce Secretary Lutnick also said Beijing would deliver rare earths curbs, US would remove countermeasures. Treasury Secretary Bessent called latest developments a de-escalation, said US doesn't want to decouple from China. Not much new on EU talks, though reports this week said bloc may lower tariffs in effort to strike deal with US before 9-Jul deadline, while White House signaled flexibility on timing, called that deadline "not critical." Treasury Secretary Bessent also asked Congress on Thursday to remove section 899 language after coming to agreement with G7 partners. However, timing around broader reconciliation bill remains uncertain. Senate GOP leaders had hoped to put up for vote as soon as today, though now uncertain after Senate parliamentarian ruled health care cuts, savings provisions ineligible for party-line vote. However, some headlines a SALT deal with the House may be close.

May core PCE up 0.2% m/m, hotter than 0.1% consensus and April's 0.1% pace. Personal income and personal spending both down m/m vs forecasts for 0.3% gains. Final June Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in better than expected, with one- and five-year inflation expectations ticking down slightly vs the flash read. Fedspeak continues to reflect split in Fed. Minneapolis's Kashkari said he sees two cuts this year with the first in September, but adding tariff impacts could keep the Fed on hold. Governor Cook, Cleveland's Hammack also on today's calendar. Fed scheduled to release bank stress test results after the close. Focus turning to busy week of data in next week's holiday-shortened week, capped off with June payrolls (3-Jul), which are expected to slow to 125K from May 140K.

That’s all for now. Our weekly resources link is attached. Have a great weekend and enjoy July 4th!

Pasquale

https://www.raymondjames.com/evangelista/resources

Thank you,

Pasquale Evangelista

Sr. Vice President, Investments

Raymond James & Associates, Inc.
1421 Pine Ridge Rd. Suite 300
Naples, FL 34109
(239) 513-6528 Direct - (800) 843-2025 -Toll Free - (239) 938-4078 Cell - (239) 596-5474 Fax
Pasquale.Evangelista@RaymondJames.com
www.raymondjames.com/evangelista

This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Expressions of opinion are those of Investment Strategy and not necessarily those of Pasquale Evangelista and are provided as of the date above and subject to change. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the economy, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Consumer Sentiment is a consumer confidence index published monthly by the University of Michigan. The index is normalized to have a value of 100 in the first quarter of 1966. Each month at least 500 telephone interviews are reconducted of a contiguous United States sample.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE): The PCE is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The change in the PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior.

The U.S. Dollar Index is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies. The Index goes up when the U.S. dollar gains "strength" when compared to other currencies. Source: FactSet, data as of 6/16/2023

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated. The LBMA Gold Price and LBMA Silver Price are the global benchmark prices for unallocated gold and silver delivered in London. SS&P GSCI Crude Oil is an index tracking changes in the spot price for crude oil. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors.

Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary