Essential Resources
for the informed investor

Investment Strategy
by Larry Adam
Chief Investment Officer, Private Client Group

Weekly Headings

January 15, 2021

Key Takeaways

Next Wednesday, January 20, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th President of the United States, and we are hopeful that Inauguration Day will serve as a platform for a more united country. However, before this transition of power occurs, we evaluate the economic and market performance that has occurred over the last four years under President Trump and provide some context as to how the results compare to those of prior presidents. Overall, the performance has been mixed with healthy equity gains and tepid economic growth despite record increases in the size of both the national debt and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) balance sheet. In addition, given that we ‘inaugurated’ our Ten Themes for 2021 this week, we address a few macro risks that could unsettle our optimistic outlook for the equity market. These include the likelihood and timing of tax policy changes, the potential for premature Fed quantitative easing (QE) tapering, and growing geopolitical risks. 

While we foresee that volatility will be lower in 2021 versus 2020, primarily as the world recovers from one of the most severe ‘Black Swan’ events in history—COVID-19—there are still a few dynamics that could unsettle our favorable outlook for the upcoming year.

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