Enhance your investment acumen

Investment Strategy
by Larry Adam
Chief Investment Officer, Private Client Group

Weekly Headings

May 13, 2022

Key Takeaways

We remain in the camp that the US economy will not enter a recession over the next 12 months. For the most part, neither our long nor our short-term indicators suggest any sign of an impending recession. However, we do think there is a conundrum confronting the Federal Reserve (Fed): Can it aggressively raise interest rates to slow the pace of inflation in an environment in which anecdotal evidence suggests signs of strain? With inflation largely driven by factors out of the Fed’s control (e.g., war, weather), we believe the Fed should not raise rates as much as the market is expecting. This is especially true as the major retailers share insights on what is stressing their outlook. The Fed should take note, as these are real-time insights into the most important driver of the US economy – the consumer.

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** Source: Bloomberg.
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