“No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it's not the same river and he's not the same man.” - Heraclitus
Dear Clients and Friends,
Congratulations on making it to The New Year, which I hope finds you well! The old year was most interesting. Just last month, the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) had its first 1,000-point day. Remembering back to 1981, the year I began business with Smith, Barney, Harris, Upham & Co., the ENTIRE DJIA was BELOW 1,000. Back then, the DJIA included such names as Allied Chemical, American Can, Bethlehem Steel, Eastman Kodak, General Electric, International Harvester, Sears Roebuck & Co., Texaco, Union Carbide, Westinghouse Electric, and F.W. Woolworth. Today, those companies are no longer in the Dow. Some are no longer in business. Over time, they were replaced by new companies doing new things in better ways (think Microsoft, Apple, Walmart, etc.). Back then, ‘stock brokers’ received stock quotes through a Quotron, which was a desktop-sized, TV-like box that showed quotes lit up in eerie green letters and numbers. When a company had news to report, an asterisk would appear beside the company’s stock symbol. If this asterisk coincided with an unusual change in price, I would get out of my chair and walk over to the newswire to check what’s up. This machine printed market news on a roll of paper that streamed into a small mountain on the carpet near the operations area, or ‘cage’. Regarding research, we had written reports published by our analysts that were sent from New York via snail-mail. We could also go to the library and pull a report from Standard & Poor’s, the information of which was as fresh as last Thanksgiving’s turkey. Client communications were either by telephone, letter, or in person. Email and texting didn’t exist. To place an order for a client, I would write up a blue ticket to buy, or a pink ticket to sell, and carry it over to Jane, the wire operator and lioness in ‘the cage’. Nobody messed with Jane.
Fast forward to today. Information is unlimited and instant and delivered mostly via the internet. When I want to obtain information, contact a client, or place an order, I can just tapety-tapety-tap my computer keyboard, and voila. No wasted steps to the library or the ‘cage’. Jane retired several years ago. In 1981, who could have imagined the world in which we live today? Is the world a better place? Maybe, maybe not. But it is different, and it will always be changing. That’s what makes life fun and interesting.
My point in this commentary relates to a common activity at the start of every year … predictions of the future, and what it will bring. As Warren Buffett once said, “In this business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” Mr. Buffett knows that predicting the future is a mug’s game, and I know the same. During the past 37 years, I came to realize that I am not in the prediction business. And I don’t want to be in the speculation business either! I am in the observation, evaluation, management, and communication business.
Reflecting on these four areas, I spend a great amount of time in the first three, but have assigned myself a ‘D’ in the communications area. Hoping to correct this deficiency, I intend to provide interesting (and brief!) commentary on a monthly basis going forward. In the meantime, I am in my office pretty much every workday from 7:30 - 4:00. Call me any time and let me know what’s on your mind. If you prefer to not receive these missives, just reply ‘unsubscribe’ in the email subject line. I don’t take things personally, and will gladly respect your request. In the meantime, I greatly appreciate your trust and friendship, and thank you for the opportunity to be of service.
Happy 2019!
