St. Patrick’s Day is one of those calendar days that, while not quite a holiday, certainly has that celebratory feeling. On the 17th, millions of Americans will happily become ‘Irish’ while enjoying parades, festive music, and lots of green—especially beer. But alas, twas not always so, these happy times with the Irish. Their woeful tale is here.
Our Celtic celebration reminds us that the American story is an immigration story. Everyone reading this note probably has an ancestor who arrived here by boat. And ever since the Powhatan tribes encountered the Jamestown settlers in 1607, the natives have looked askance at the newcomers; the English, French, Germans, Italians, Irish, and others have all taken their turns in the barrel. At pivotal times in history, this ‘us-vs-them’ has also been the clarion call to round up the troops and thrash the opposition. Witness last November’s presidential election, where failure to control our southern border was a game changer. But immigration is not just about raggedy people crossing the Rio Grande. The truth lies somewhere in the middle (here) and reform is needed.
But there’s a math problem. Baby boomers are retiring, and Gen Z is not producing enough future workers (click here for Bill Maher’s ‘spicy’ exposé). Unless the A.I. revolution greatly boosts productivity, people will be needed to fill the gap. Economic growth drives everything from paychecks to corporate earnings to stock prices. It also generates tax revenues which pay for little things like national defense, interest on the debt, health care, and making sure those Social Security checks keep coming.
“Capital is not just money. It’s also talent and ideas. They … will go where they’re welcome and stay where they are well treated.” – Walter Wriston, former CEO of Citibank
For nearly 250 years, America’s success has been based, not on the ethnicity of our people, but on our ability to attract and retain capital. This continued flow of money, talent, and ideas will depend on continued trust in our institutions, the rule of law, and an accountable and competent government. Should the situation change, minds may change as well. As Ireland discovered long ago, emigration is just immigration going the other way.
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