The Stock Market Was Indeed a Coiled Spring
In my last market update, I described the stock market as a coiled spring—compressed by uncertainty, particularly around tariff and trade policy. My view then was that if moderation emerged from the White House, we could see the market rebound swiftly. That view is now being validated.
Recently, encouraging news broke that the United States and China are engaging in formal trade talks aimed at reducing inflationary pressure and scaling back recent tariff increases. According to early reports, the U.S. is considering reducing tariffs on roughly $300 billion in Chinese imports, while China has committed to cutting retaliatory duties on certain U.S. agricultural and industrial goods. This shift in tone suggests a meaningful departure from punitive trade policy and a move toward negotiation—a trend that could support both consumer prices and corporate margins in the months ahead.
As I mentioned previously, I believed the risk of recession was overstated if tariffs were simply being used as a tactical negotiation tool rather than a long-term strategy to rebuild the U.S. manufacturing base. Now, with trade talks advancing, the likelihood of a 2025 recession appears significantly reduced—barring any unforeseen shocks.
Markets Reflect the Shift
Remarkably, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are now positive year-to-date. This reinforces my view that the recent market decline was never rooted in economic fundamentals, but rather in uncertainty tied to artificial policy shocks. As trade tensions ease, we’re seeing the market spring back to life—just as we’d expect from a compressed coil regaining its shape.
What About the Federal Reserve?
Many economists and strategists are now forecasting that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates in the near term. While that’s possible, I continue to approach those projections with caution. Since 2022, I’ve advised clients to add at least six months of skepticism to any prevailing Fed narrative—and that still holds true.
The Fed is also under significant pressure to lower rates. For the record, every administration wants the Fed to accommodate growth—lower rates tend to boost the economy and the markets—but in my view, the Fed is right to hold steady for now.
Inflation is still running above the Fed’s 2% target, and with tariffs still elevated, we could see selective price increases in consumer and industrial goods—not runaway inflation, but enough to keep pressure on the system. That’s why I believe the greatest risk to the economy right now is not recession, but stagflation.
To be clear, I don’t believe we’re heading into a 1970s-style economic crisis—but if growth decelerates (not a contraction, just a slowdown) while inflation remains sticky, we run the risk of entering a stagflation-like environment. That’s a scenario where the economy stagnates while prices continue rising—and it’s notoriously difficult to manage.
In this light, I believe the Fed’s current posture isn’t political—it’s practical. Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that inflation is still a concern, and in my estimation, we should expect rates to remain higher for longer as the Fed works to cool inflation without derailing the broader economy.
A More Stable Market Ahead?
While volatility could return as trade negotiations play out during this 90-day tariff pause, I believe we’re entering a more stable market environment. If the current administration follows through on proposed tax cuts and deregulation, we may even see the market trend higher before year-end.
New Capabilities for Business Owners through Investment Banking
On another note, I’m excited to share that we’re expanding our services for business owner clients. Through our relationship with Raymond James, which owns Alex Brown, the nation’s oldest investment bank, and through their extensive network of boutique bankers, we now offer access to investment banking capabilities, including:
- Capital raise strategies
- M&A planning and execution
- Business sale preparation and valuation
- Liquidity event guidance
Whether you’re looking to grow, transition, or sell your business, we bring together traditional wealth planning and private capital solutions to help you move forward with clarity and confidence.
Reflections from the Raymond James Elevate Conference
Earlier this month, I had the pleasure of attending Raymond James’ Elevate Conference, the firm’s national event for independent advisors. It was my first time attending, and I left even more confident that we’ve aligned our practice with the best platform in the industry.
The conference featured keynote sessions from the Raymond James executive committee, including CEO Paul Shoukry—and I had the unique opportunity to have breakfast with Tom James, the firm’s former CEO and the son of its founder. Hearing firsthand from the firm’s leadership about their long-term vision for supporting independent advisors was both affirming and energizing.
I was also honored to speak on two panels—one on my personal experience transitioning to the independent channel, and another on how we’ve successfully grown and scaled True North Wealth Management Group, the advisor platform I co-manage. The feedback from moderators and attendees was overwhelmingly positive, and I was grateful for the opportunity to contribute.
Beyond the panels, I attended a wide range of impactful sessions covering topics such as:
- Investment banking solutions
- Private market instruments
- Advanced portfolio management strategies
- Financial planning models
- AI-driven tools for advisors
- Timely economic and market updates
There was even a leadership seminar featuring legendary Duke basketball coach Mike Krzyzewski, who shared insights on building high-performing teams.
While I’ve long held a positive view of Raymond James, I walked away from Elevate with even greater conviction. I feel deeply encouraged that our clients—and our team—are backed by a firm that remains committed to innovation, independence, and integrity.
Most of all, it was a chance to reflect, learn, and reenergize our practice for the future—a future I’m honored to build alongside you, my clients.
As always, I remain grateful for the trust you place in our team. If you’d like to talk about how these market developments—or our new capabilities—impact your personal or business strategy, I’d be happy to connect.
The information contained in this newsletter does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Drew Benson and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results.