Weekly Newsletter 05/30/25

Good afternoon everyone,

Happy Friday to all and thanks for checking in. It was a short trading week in the capital markets due to the celebration of Memorial day on Monday. I hope everyone enjoyed the day off. Looking at the markets, US equities lower in Friday midday trading, though off session lows. This follows stocks finishing higher on Thursday. Major indices on track for strong weekly gains, with S&P and Nasdaq on pace to cap off best month since Nov-23. Today, big tech is largely lower, with NVDA-US the notable decliner in the Mag 7. Other laggards include semis, biotech, airlines, apparel, asset managers, diversified chemicals, industrial metals, credit cards, homebuilders, building products, and China tech. Outperformers include staples retailers (COST-US ), managed care, pharma, P&C insurers, HPCs, telecom, grocers, tobacco, ag chemicals, A&D, and waste. Treasuries mostly firmer with some curve steepening. Dollar index up 0.1%. Gold down 0.9%. WTI crude down 1.0% ahead of another expected output hike from this weekend's OPEC+ meeting.

Trade continues to dominate the headlines, with some downside tabbed to Trump Truth Social post accusing China of violating agreement with the US to ease tariffs; fits with commentary from Bessent that US-China talks have been stalled (though he said said negotiations will continue in the coming weeks). Also no surprise White House looking shift legal authorization for tariffs (Sec. 122 and Sec. 301 seem to be likeliest options), even in the wake of the temporary reprieve from a federal appeals court. Non-tariff barriers also in focus with the recent scrutiny surrounding Section 899 in the reconciliation bill that allows US to increase tax rates for individuals and companies from countries with discriminatory tax policies, including digital services tax. Earnings takeaways mixed and don't seem to be having much broader impact. On the flow front, focus will likely be on potential month-end selling from US pensions.

April core PCE up 0.1% m/m, matching consensus and up slightly from March's flat reading; now up 2.5% y/y (new post-2021 low). Personal income better, up 0.8% m/m vs 0.4% forecast, while prior month revised up. Personal spending light, up 0.2% m/m against 0.4% forecast and March's 0.7%. Final UMich consumer sentiment improved more than expected vs the flash read; release attributed to easing pessimism on US-China trade front (though noted consumers remain worried about the future). Year-ahead and 5Y inflation expectations also eased off of spikes in the flash report. May Chicago PMI missed, weakest since January. Looking ahead to next week, ISM manufacturing on Monday, JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, ISM services on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday the notable releases. Next week's Fedspeak highlighted by Powell speech at Fed International Finance Division's 75th Anniversary Conference on Monday.

Finally it has been a busy couple of weeks in our household. My daughter graduated high school and between parties and celebrations it has been non stop. She will off to the University of Tampa come the fall for her next chapter.

Thanks for reading. Have a safe weekend. Our website resources are attached.

Pasquale

https://www.raymondjames.com/evangelista/resources

Thank you,

Pasquale Evangelista

Sr. Vice President, Investments
Raymond James & Associates, Inc.
1421 Pine Ridge Rd. Suite 300
Naples, FL 34109
(239) 513-6528 Direct - (800) 843-2025 -Toll Free - (239) 938-4078 Cell - (239) 596-5474 Fax
Pasquale.Evangelista@RaymondJames.com
www.raymondjames.com/evangelista

This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Expressions of opinion are those of Investment Strategy and not necessarily those of Pasquale Evangelista and are provided as of the date above and subject to change. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the economy, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Consumer Sentiment is a consumer confidence index published monthly by the University of Michigan. The index is normalized to have a value of 100 in the first quarter of 1966. Each month at least 500 telephone interviews are reconducted of a contiguous United States sample. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE): The PCE is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. The change in the PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior.
The U.S. Dollar Index is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies. The Index goes up when the U.S. dollar gains "strength" when compared to other currencies. Source: FactSet, data as of 6/16/2023

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated. The LBMA Gold Price and LBMA Silver Price are the global benchmark prices for unallocated gold and silver delivered in London. SS&P GSCI Crude Oil is an index tracking changes in the spot price for crude oil. Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulation and may not be suitable for all investors.
Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary