Weekly Newsletter 06/20/25

Good afternoon,

Middle East tensions continue to dominate the headlines. The big development coming in the wake of Thursday's market holiday in the US has been the disclosure that President Trump will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran. Some have cited a meaningful chance of negotiations. This recent announcement arises after Trump had privately approved attack plans but had yet to make a final decision which also followed Trump's hawkish shift earlier in the week.

A very quiet week elsewhere in financial news. There was nothing incremental on the trade front, though more discussion about the auto sector as a sticking point for the US. When it comes to the spending reconciliation bill, Medicaid spending cuts, SALT and clean energy credits remain the key sticking points. Some highlights for working families: The bill permanently extends the 2017 TCJA individual tax rates, enhances the Child Tax Credit, increases the standard deduction, creates deductions up to $25,000 for tips and overtime deductions of $12,500 for single filers and $25,000 for married.

In Fed news, post-meeting headlines have continued to highlight the pressure to cut rates coming from the White House. There is some thought that the more Trump pushes for the Fed Chair to lower rates, the less likely Jerome Powell is inclined to do so. A couple of possible reasons: One being the desire of the Fed to appear independent of politics. The other being the human nature of “don’t tell me what to do.”

Outside the of the US, Japan in focus with hotter inflation data and report of larger-than-expected planned cutback to superlong JGB issuance.

June Philly Fed manufacturing index printed at (4.0), unchanged from May. The employment index decreased, as did prices-paid component. Fed's Waller told CNBC he thinks tariffs will have a one-time price impact that central banks should look past; argued Fed should consider cutting beginning at its next meeting.

Looking ahead to next week, US flash PMIs and existing home sales are scheduled for Monday. House price data, Conference Board consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing numbers come out on Tuesday morning. Wednesday brings new home sales. Initial claims, durable goods orders, final Q1 GDP and pending home sales being the highlights on Thursday. Personal income and spending report, which includes core PCE inflation, out on Friday, along with final University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Fedspeak ramps back up next week and Chair Powell set to deliver semi-annual monetary policy testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday. Fed bank stress test results also out on Friday. Treasury supply is another area of focus with $69B of 2-year notes, $70B of 5-year notes and $44B of 7-year notes. Not much in the way of corporate news.

Growth concerns have ratcheted up with softer retail sales, industrial production and housing starts for May. Citi US economic surprise index deeply in negative territory at lowest level in nine months. Amazon CEO comments about AI eventually driving workforce reductions. A financial press report about the biggest US companies cutting their workforces amid concerns having too many employees could actually hamper growth.

Summer officially starts today with the Summer Solstice though it has felt like summer in SWFL for about a month. Next week my son, Jake, and I will be in North Dakota visiting my dad and some other family members doing a bunch of guy stuff while my wife and girls travel to a dance competition in Orlando. Jake and I will have over 2 more hours of daylight than the girls…we will do our best to take advantage of the extra daytime. It’s rural ND so we will be making our own fun.

The link below contains financial planning articles and resources.

https://www.raymondjames.com/evangelista/resources

“Cheerfulness is the best promoter of health and is as friendly to the mind as to the body.”--Joseph Addison

Thank you,

Kyle

KYLE CHRISTIANSON, CFP^®
Financial Advisor
Raymond James & Associates, Inc.
1421 Pine Ridge Rd, Ste 300
Naples, FL 34109
Toll Free (800) 843-2025 | Direct (239) 513-6525 | Main (239) 513-6500 | Fax (239) 596-5474
Kyle.Christianson@RaymondJames.com

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