Economic Monitor – Weekly Commentary
by Eugenio Alemán
July FOMC meeting preview
July 26, 2024
The Federal Reserve (Fed) doesn’t like to spook markets, that is the reason why it has crafted its communication on monetary policy to give indications way in advance and nothing has been pointing to a change of heart that could lead to a surprise move next week. It is true that ‘Fedspeak’ has become a bit less hawkish after several weak monthly inflation readings during the second quarter of the year compared to the severe hawkishness expressed after the higher-than- expected inflation readings during the first quarter of the year.
Furthermore, external voices have been making appearances on several news media outlets indicating the need to start moving sooner rather than later. The latest one was William Dudley who was the president of the New York Federal Reserve until 2018. He seems to have changed his tune and his view and now seems to believe that the Fed should go ahead and lower interest rates at the conclusion of the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next week.
Others have started to argue that because of the impending slowdown in economic activity during the second half of the year (see our Weekly Economic commentary on July 19, 2024) the Fed is going to have to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points rather than 25 basis points in September. Furthermore, markets are currently pricing in three 25 basis points cuts for the federal funds rate between today and the end of the year starting in September.
We believe that it is highly unlikely that the Fed would act on Dudley’s comments. Furthermore, if you have followed our view, we mentioned several times before that we disagreed with the hawkish pivot Fed members made after higher-than-expected inflation readings during the first quarter of the year. However, the threshold for surprising the market next week is very high and would probably require Fed officials to have concrete information that the economy is on the precipice of a recession. And if that occurred it will really spook markets.
Is the Sahm Rule signaling trouble? What about LEI, ISM Manufacturing, and ISM Services?
A recession indicator based on the increase in the unemployment rate is starting to flash a warning sign. The indicator is called the Sahm Rule, which is calculated as the three-month average rate of change in the rate of unemployment. If this rule increases by 0.5 percentage points compared to the low of the previous 12 months, this may be an indication that the economy may be in a recession. The Sahm Rule increased to 0.43 in June of this year (see graph below). If the rate of unemployment for July, which is expected to be released next week stays at 4.1%, then the Sahm Rule will increase to 0.466. However, if the rate of unemployment increases to 4.2% or higher, then the Sahm Rule will be triggered.
Would this mean that the U.S. economy has entered a recession? Nobody knows. So many tested and, in the past, trustworthy economic indicators have been so wrong since the end of the pandemic recession that we would not put our trust in only one indicator. Furthermore, since other indicators of economic activity have become unreliable after the pandemic recession there is a chance that the Sahm Rule has also been affected and can no longer be trusted.
Furthermore, we don’t estimate economic growth by just watching only one indicator and we are still not predicting a recession this year, just a slowdown in economic activity. However, the Fed has to realize that there are several warning signs pointing to slower economic growth, and it should go ahead sooner rather than later with several rate cuts to accommodate this lower economic growth scenario before other sectors of economic activity start to falter under the pressure of high interest rates.
Economic and market conditions are subject to change.
Opinions are those of Investment Strategy and not necessarily those Raymond James and are subject to change without notice the information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur last performance may not be indicative of future results.
Consumer Price Index is a measure of inflation compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Studies. Currencies investing are generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Their markets are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising.
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components. It provides a indication of the health of small businesses in the U.S., which account of roughly 50% of the nation's private workforce.
The producer price index is a price index that measures the average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. Its importance is being undermined by the steady decline in manufactured goods as a share of spending.
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