Weekly Market Update Teleconference Transcript
Wednesday, August 5th, 2015
James Schmidt, Senior Vice President; and
Bernice Murff, Associate Vice President of Investments
TO DIAL FUTURE TELECONFERENCES: CALL: (888) 280-6755 CONFERENCE CODE: 1493304416 Please Join Us EVERY Wednesday at 12:00pm
JIM: Hi everyone, today is Wednesday, August 5th, our first midday, mid-week, every week teleconference call for the month of August 2015. Today is the 45th day of summer with only another 45 more days until autumn here we are smack dab in the middle of summer. Instead of the dog days of summer we are in the middle of the dog weeks of hot humid weather, so we hope we fly through August just like we did in July!
Thank you for joining us today, we want to bring you up to date on our market observations, but first a few thoughts from Bernie Murff, Bernie?
BERNIE: As we continue to focus on future goal planning and expenses with our clients. I found some interesting information that could impact some of our younger clients.
In the 19th century, philosophers began to promote the idea of social generations with different mentalities. The most recent social classification is the Millennials. There are some discrepancies in the date range so researchers generally use the birth years ranging from the early 1980's to the early 2000's. The traits of Millennials include: a sense of entitlement in younger years, upbeat, tolerant of difference, technology savvy and more civic minded later on in life. While some say this is the generation that sometimes "boomerangs" back home instead of growing up, that may not be true for all Millennials.
A recent study from a large financial institution finds that approximately 22% of Americans are giving financial support to an aging parent or an adult child, and sometimes to both. On average, the cost is $12,000 per year, and that's on top of all the other costs of running a household.
The study finds that financial support for adult children and aging parents is costing American household budgets approximately $630 billion a year.
What does this mean to the Millennials? It means that they many have to work longer than they expected or wanted to or they may have to do some penny pinching.
What can they do? They need to build a cash flow spending and savings plan early and in addition to saving for retirement they should consider a plan to save for costs that might include supporting a family member. I know on our team when working with clients on future expenses it is challenging to estimate the cost of health care, but this is another topic that will need to be addressed as well unfortunately for some of our Millennials.
I'll now turn the call back over to Jim to give his market updates and commentary.
JIM: Thank you Bernie. Today's comments will be brief summaries from Jeff Saut, Scott Brown, Michael Gibbs and our own collaborative work with Dorsey Wright.
Jeff Saut is looking at the market making a decision here, to head lower or to head upward. Jeff took a few minutes today to point out that there are multiple trading systems that help in making market calls and he is quick to mention that some of them are so complicated; he has never been able to figure them out. I was quite relieved to hear this, as I have never been able to understand systems like the Elliot Wave Theory or Gann, G-A-N-N, stochastics, candles or other wave theories. Saut uses a simple moving average configuration in combination with what's called the McClellan Oscillator – which sounds like something that provides radio waves into the stock market. Here on our team, we use point and figure methodology, founded by none other than Charles Dow, he who with Edward Jones formed the Dow Jones Corporation back in the late 1800's. None of these systems guarantee the clear accurate crystal ball we'd all like to have, but they are tools and when merged with other information they help us all to be a bit wiser and better risk managers.
Michael Gibbs, our Managing Director and Portfolio manager in Memphis, is looking for positive equity follow through from global markets that ended mostly higher in Asia and Europe. The IMF has postponed, he pointed out the inclusion of the Chinese yuan (you-en) in what's called the SDR basket, and this is an index of the IMF uses that includes four major currencies and currently not the Chinese money base. The Special Drawing Rights, the SDR basket, is an international reserve asset created by the IMF in 1969. The decision to include the Chinese currency has been pushed back to October of 2016.
From our fixed income area, Ben Streed and Doug Drabik point out that one promising economic data release is offset by another disappointing one. They continue to wonder if the Fed will raise rates in September like they have suggested given the inconsistency of the economic news being released. In the meantime, interest rates have pulled back, a small mini rally in the bond market; we'll see how long that can last. Our major indicators are more negative in the New York Stock Exchange companies and continue to be positive for the over the counter market, in spite of AAPL which has pulled back about 10% in recent weeks. We are still reluctant to add fixed income here, seeing caution and discretion as the better part of valor.
I did have one follow-up from 2 weeks ago. It's always amazing to see the price change in investments in companies like AAPL. Two earnings announcements ago, AAPL celebrated great news and the market failed to move the price higher, in fact it put some pressure on it. The most recent earnings announcement two weeks ago was negative and the stock actually moved a little higher. It looks like our sensational friends in the media may not always interpret the information as accurately as the market place does in pricing. Thank goodness for pricing, the cornerstone of our investment trigger.
That's all for today, we'll see you all next week, continue to enjoy the summer. Bernie and I would be very pleased to take any questions or comments you may have, I will unmute the lines now……please, if you are introducing yourself, please use just your first name.
Opinions expressed are not necessarily those of Raymond James & Associates. The author's opinions are subject to change without notice. Information contained was received from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing always involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets. Further information regarding these investments is available from your financial advisor. Investing in stocks involves risks, including the possibility of losing one's entire investment. Dividends are not guaranteed, will fluctuate and must be authorized by the company's board of directors.