The best way to live a successful life in retirement is to create it before you get there!
As we approach the halfway point of the year, I wanted to send a note reviewing our current outlook and perspective on the road ahead. Will the old adage, “sell in May and go away” be the appropriate strategy for the remainder of 2024? Or will the market rally into the second half of the year? I think the latter will be the eventual outcome.
The financial markets have continued to be dynamic and unpredictable, presenting both challenges and opportunities. Despite the fluctuations, your confidence in our strategies and the dedication of our team have enabled us to navigate these waters with resilience.
What will the FED do in the coming months, will they or won’t they cut interest rates? I think we have several rate cuts coming in the next several months and this should give a boost to the equity markets into the year end.
Earnings:
Analysts are projecting earnings growth of 9.3% in the Q2 of 2024, 8.4% in Q3 2024, 17.4% in Q4 2024. They expect 11% earnings growth for the full year 2024. (Factset Earnings Insight)
The FED:
The G10 monetary easing cycle is broadening as the ECB, BoE, and BOC are all likely to cut rates in June. The Fed will not be in the first wave of cutters because of the 2024 inflation pickup, and risks to our forecast of two cuts this year (July and November) remain skewed to the later side even after the relatively benign April CPI. (Goldman Sachs Global views)
A handful of the biggest money managers I know have recently made strong arguments for ongoing durability in the US economy. One common thread across them, it’s the momentum behind spending on AI, infrastructure, onshoring and defense. Goldman Sachs is projecting a Q2 GDP of 3.2%. I mention this because it stands in contrast to the ongoing pessimism I see in the press and hear on the street. (Goldman Sachs Markets/Macro)
We believe we are still in a Secular Bull Market with many years left in its path. If that changes, we will adjust. As we’ve emphasized in our prior conversations, stocks are in a long -term upward trend, and that trend is incorporated into your financial plan, but stocks don’t rise in a straight line. Be prepared for setbacks and use those as opportunities to add to equities when appropriate.
Lastly, I want to thank you for your trust and your confidence in our services means the world to us, and we look forward to continuing this journey together in the coming years.
Any opinions are those of Harry Williamson and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or
Forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S .stock market.
Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.
