“Whatever you are, be a good one” - Abraham Lincoln
Valued Clients,
Since our last market commentary, the S&P has moved quickly in both directions. With so much volatility in such a short period of time, it can be hard to gauge what happened and what comes next. As we emphasized in February, our focus continues to be directed at the Federal Reserve and their policy, earnings growth, as well as tariff and regulatory policy.
The market initially did not welcome the tariff news, with the S&P 500 at its’ low being down -10.2%, but then that was followed up by the 8th largest single day gain in the history of the S&P 500 and a bias to the upside in the weeks following. Now the S&P 500 is up year to date, as of writing. As the dust settles on trade negotiations, we expect the upward bias to continue.
The Fed left rates unchanged through their March and May meetings. Currently, there is only a 5.3% chance of rate cuts for their June meeting. When looking at their July meeting, the probability of a cut increases to 27.5%. (CME Group)
For Q1 2025, the blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 13.4%. If 13.4% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second-straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth reported by the index. (FACTSET)
For Q2 2025, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 5.2% and revenue growth of 4.0%. For Q3 2025, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 7.4% and revenue growth of 4.7%. For Q4 2025, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 6.7% and revenue growth of 5.2%. For CY 2025, analysts are projecting earnings growth of 9.3% and revenue growth of 4.9% (FACTSET)
Q1 GDP printed at -0.3% annualized, while being impacted by short term tariff data. This distortion is expected to reverse in Q2, with current forecasts predicting a +2.4% print. The full year forecast expects +0.5% GDP Growth. (Goldman Sachs)
We thank you again for allowing us to be a part of your financial journey. We continue to believe that stocks are in a bull market, with many years left in its’ path. Volatility will always be a part of the market, but we believe that stocks are still in a long-term upward trend. If that changes, we will adjust.
The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Williamson Wealth Management and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Every investor’s situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.
