Headline Roulette: Finding Clarity in a Noisy Market

The past few weeks have been a lesson in how quickly markets—and narratives—can change. We've seen an overwhelming amount of confusion, misinformation, and conflicting headlines, with investors scrambling to understand the White House's intentions. Much of the commentary floating around simply hasn’t been rooted in fact, and it's made an already uncertain environment feel even more disorienting.

That said, history reminds us: when markets experience sharp drawdowns like this, it’s often followed by some of the best 12-month returns. These are the gut-check moments that tend to create long-term opportunity.

Just this past Wednesday, the White House announced a 90-day tariff pause, resetting most tariffs to a universal 10% rate. However, tariffs on China remain at a much higher 145%. The market reacted instantly. The S&P 500 jumped 9.52%, and the NASDAQ soared 12.16%—all in one day.

Why? Because investors are desperate for clarity. Even the false rumor earlier in the week of a tariff pause led to an 8.5% market surge in just 30 minutes before the story was debunked and gains reversed.

Interestingly, in a press conference following the official announcement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “This was his strategy all along,” and went further to say, “You might even say he goaded China into a bad position.” That statement has left many wondering whether the recent ambiguity has been by design—keeping foreign powers off-balance while buying time to negotiate behind the scenes.

So what now? The next 90 days will be crucial. We'll be watching how other countries respond, what deals are put on the table, and how China chooses to proceed. Those developments will likely dictate the short-term direction of the market.

From an investment perspective, if you were already positioned with a long-term focus, not much has fundamentally changed. In fact, this might be a compelling time to revisit some of your watchlist names that are trading at steep discounts. On the other hand, if you were off-balance coming into this event, this could be the right time to rethink allocations and prepare for more volatility.

For those looking for opportunity through the chaos. I think it’s important to focus on high quality businesses in sectors that can withstand economic uncertainty and potentially a slowdown. Cybersecurity is one clear area that continues to gain urgency. A striking example is 23andMe, which recently filed for bankruptcy following a major cyber breach. The risks of underinvesting in data protection are simply too high as a breach could literally mean the end of your business, and companies can’t afford to cut corners here.

Additionally, if the U.S. is serious about reshoring manufacturing, we’ll have to solve a major labor gap—something that opens the door for robotics and automation to play a pivotal role. These technologies won’t just be helpful—they’ll be essential for achieving scale and efficiency. The same could be said if we face an economic downturn. This would typically lead to layoffs forcing companies to rely heavier on technologies that make their businesses more efficient.

Even though we may not be out of the woods yet, the clarity from last week’s announcement is a step forward—and it comes just as earnings season begins. It also helps that the Federal Reserve still has flexibility. If needed, they can act aggressively—even between scheduled meetings—but for now, they appear to be waiting for the dust to settle. Investors also have major tax changes to look forward to which are currently working their way through congress.

Finally, I want to leave you with this: despite the headlines, despite the chaos, businesses and people are incredibly resilient. Think about what we’ve collectively endured these past few years— pandemics, wars, inflation, political upheaval—and we’re still here, adapting and pushing forward.

If you have questions, want to revisit your strategy, or simply need a steady hand during uncertain

times, I’m here.

Stay grounded. Stay focused. And stay invested.

Any opinions are those of Michael Fitzgerald and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The information contained in this material does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.