The Week in Review 06/16/25
“The dictionary is the only place that success comes before work.” – Vince Lombardi
Good Morning ,
Oil prices spiked and stocks were sold last week, as Israel launches a missile offensive against Iran. While not entirely unexpected, the timing of it was a surprise as the US has been in negotiations with both countries trying to avoid an attack.
Israel struck nuclear facilities with significant force, Iran vowed to strike to strike back and launched missiles in retaliation. Iran also threatened any US ally from assisting Israel.
Oil spiked 10%, settling 8% higher into the close of trading Friday.
The market technicals were a bit stretched anyway, and this provided an opportunity for investors to take profits.
Top 3 sectors YTD are Utilities, Communications Services, and Industrials… Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, and Information Technology are the laggards.
CPI & PPI came in better than expected, which brought calls from the White House for a Fed rate cut. As of May, CPI sits at 2.8%.
We have a FOMC Meeting this week and the street has pretty much ruled out any chance of a June cut.
The CME FedWatch tool predicts a 99% probability of no cut in June but shows an 83.4% probability for July ¼ point cut.
The geopolitical developments will likely add to volatility over the coming weeks, as we slip into the “Dog Days of Summer”.
After the 4th of July, traders head for the Hamptons and vacations are top of mind through August.
A July rate cut might add some spice to our summer trading…we will see.
Have a wonderful week!!
Michael D. Hilger, CEP®
Managing Director
Senior Vice President, Wealth Management
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