The Power of Inference

Anomalies & Investing


Mark trained under James S. Williams, who founded the Williams Inference Service, and consulted with him for 23 years. Mr. Williams, who passed away in 2010, taught him to spot anomalies and draw inferences from small clues that could then be formulated into an investment theme or strategy.

The Williams method of inferential scanning focuses attention on areas in the outside world that may have an important impact on future decisions.Understanding the outside world is critical because change comes from the outside,and change always leaves a trace.

The early signals of external change may easily go unnoticed as today's business complexities demand concentration on one's own field to the exclusion of others.Additionally, critical and significant information is often purposely concealed or disguised . Discovering the "down card" or restricted news can be revealed with inferential tools developed over the last 50 years by Jim Williams.

Discovering the hidden clues of change requires a special kind of seeing. This is an act of comparative seeing, in search of anomalies.The Williams Inference technique is grounded in accurate observations of current anomalies,deviations from the norm. These anomalies tend to appear randomly in isolated areas.While seemingly unrelated on the surface,these unique events and discontinuities create a pattern that is , in fact , the essence of Inference.They are the unintended message pointing to a new and therefore unfamiliar norm, the new reality.

The thinking, and ultimately the inferences---insights into change, is a qualitative right brained approach to the discovery of what's new and what is changing. Change--- whether it is economic,social,political or technological can create investment opportunities.There are companies that will benefit from these changes and there are companies that will be hurt by change. Change can bring either danger or opportunity, and this method of inferential analysis attempts to look at all consequences of the anomalies.

Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of capital.