Spring Hope?

So, the calendar says it is now Spring, although Winter is keeping its grasp here in Minnesota. Usually with Spring comes, “hope.” Growing up on a farm we knew the planting season was right around the corner. Also, since I grew up on a dairy farm, our cows were in the barn or the small cowyard all winter. We were always excited to get them out into the pasture. The cows were excited too! Of course, many people look forward to planting flowers or gardens in the Spring as well. All plants and trees are greening up or blooming.

There can also be “hope” for a good year in the markets. Right now, there is quite a bit of consternation out there regarding the stock market. Yes, it has been volatile since November, but that doesn’t mean that the market will have a poor 2025. In my 30 years as an advisor, I have witnessed many poor periods in the stock market. Markets do not just go up. They do go down from time to time, however they go up much more often over time. There can be many different reasons the market goes down. Risk of inflation (2022), Covid- 19 (2020) and slow down in the economy (2018) are just some of the reasons. I firmly believe that the best way to survive a market downturn is to stay invested and stay the course. Trying to ‘time” the market does not work out in the long run. To “time” the market, you have to sell correctly and then buy back correctly. This is very difficult if not near impossible for most people, including me! By staying invested and staying the course your account may go down in the short term. But then it will also go up when the market turns around. By the way, the US stock market have always come back after a downturn.

So, could we be headed for a recession? Sure, we could. That certainly would not be unheard of or terrible for the markets. Recessions (when the US economy as measured by GDP output is negative for two consecutive quarters) are followed by a period of recovery. Since World War Ⅱ the US has experienced 12 recessions or one about every 6.5 years. The last one was in 2020.

Spring provides hope and I am hopeful for a good year in the financial markets. I do not know what will happen but whatever happens I will be here ready to answer any concerns or questions.

Opinions expressed in the are those of the author and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. All opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.