Gomer Pyle
“Surprise, surprise, surprise!” If you remember the Andy Griffith Show, you remember the character of Gomer Pyle and one of his most famous lines from this great show. Last night’s election results were surely a surprise, and the market’s muted reaction (at least this morning) also comes as a surprise to many. I stayed up late watching the election results and on all the different stations nobody saw this coming. Yes, Trump winning the Presidency is a surprise.
One of the more interesting surprises, at least to me, was the turnout all over the country. Urban and suburban turnout was high, as you might expect in a race followed obsessively by mainstream media. But voters in rural areas turned out in record numbers and provided the critical ingredient for Mr. Trump. The Andy Griffith Show was all about life in rural America; the simple, funny and wonderful story lines of most of this country. Andy, Gomer, Barney and Aunt Bea all voted yesterday in Mayberry, NC, Manitowoc, WI, Manheim, PA, and many other wonderful communities across this country.
A pleasant surprise is certainly the market reaction to the Trump upset. Yes, bonds and the dollar are weaker this morning, but the Dow is up 50 some-odd points and the S&P 500 is up as I write this post. As I have said before, markets don’t always have to make sense.
Wall Street hates surprises. But I think most pundits are grateful we are not dealing with dramatic changes in the value of Corporate America. Not that volatility is going to disappear any time soon, but as long as we remember that the weighing machine of earnings has more lasting value than the voting machine of short term trading we should be okay.
The next surprise? Since I thought Mr. Trump would lose in a rout, I hesitate to even venture a guess. But the American people are resilient, innovative, unpredictable, and for the most part proud to be part of the greatest democracy in the world. The surprise might be a good one. “Shazam!”
Ralph McDevitt
"Opinions expressed are not necessarily those of Raymond James & Associates. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.
