March Sadness
The Division 1 College Basketball Tournament captivates the sports-loving and non-sports loving public in ways that are hard to describe. Sixty-Three games spread over four weekends is a ton of basketball. The tourney matches the biggest and best teams against lesser known teams, and as we witnessed this weekend, anything can happen. The top team fell to an unknown. The Syracuse zone defense thwarted three different teams thus far (they had a “play-in” game…and were the last team picked to enter the tourney). Perennial favorites North Carolina, Xavier and Michigan State are back on campus, season over. This year, it is a year of March Sadness for everyone’s office pool except Villanova stalwarts and Lucky Margaret.
Another March phenomenon making an impact this year is Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD…what an acronym). The National Institutes on Mental Health describe SAD as a type of depression that comes and goes with the seasons. I don’t know if you have witnessed this, but I am hearing more and more people complain about this long winter. The nagging colds and flus have certainly added to the seasonal dismay. We are all ready for this winter to end, that’s for sure.
Turning to the investment arena, while bond markets have been relatively calm (2.868% on February 28th vs. 2.848% on March 16th -- using the 10 year Treasury), stocks markets have been anything but calm. Volatility has increased. We have had more down days than up. The economic news continues to be positive, yet we can’t overcome negative news out of Washington on trade policy, merger-related “oversight”, and the general chaos of the White House. I am not going to make any politically charged statements, but it seems like we would benefit from “quiet time” in Washington. But politicians love the media attention and the media exists to keep our attention, a self-serving and vicious cycle if there ever was one.
What I know about all of these strange and unusual occurrences is straightforward; they will run their course and come to an end. Spring flowers are beginning to appear in more places on my long walks with my dog. According to the CDC, in recent weeks the proportion of influenza A viruses has declined. The political landscape is the least predictable of these three cyclical maladies, so I will again avoid making any statement on when this mess may improve.
These are times when information abounds, but experience and wisdom lead us to the answers we need. The journey to a collegiate basketball championship is always a challenge. Go Nova, and good luck Margaret. Staying healthy requires our constant efforts, and sometimes some chicken soup. Keep your perspective when it comes to the influence of Washington on your investments, for this too shall pass….like a kidney stone.
Ralph McDevitt March 20, 2018
