A Gentleman and a Scholar
Raymond James Chief Economist Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., will depart May 6, after serving the firm, advisors and clients for 28 years. Economists work in a murky world of complex and ever-changing variables. Investment firms often employ a “chief economist” who offers insight and guidance to advisors and clients. Having worked at several firms over the years, I have seen my share of economists. The best in the business are masters of helping us understand the complexity of the global economy, leading to better investment decisions. They also must be nimble, and possess a strong sense of humility. And it is helpful when they have a good, often wry, sense of humor. Scott is one of the best.
To substantiate my view on Scott’s work, let me share some of his comments from the past twelve months on the subject du jour, inflation. It provides ample evidence of his ability to provide clarity amidst the murkiness, and adapt as the situation changes. All of these examples are from his Weekly Economic Monitor.
May 14, 2021: titled “Inflation Hysteria and the Fed”, he included a quote from Fed Governor Lael Brainard, “inflation…associated with the reopening is largely transitory”. This was one of the first Fed comments using the word transitory to describe the ogre of inflation.
May 21, 2021: this one titled, “Some Nuance”, Scott shared “the Federal Reserve’s views on the economy and monetary policy are often of fine gradation, leading to misquotes, misinterpretations, and misunderstandings.” He then provided detailed descriptions of this phenomenon. Hopefully, we will always keep this concept in mind.
June 11, 2021: in a commentary titled “Peak Inflation” Scott cast a wary eye on the argument that we had seen the peak. A good economist does not accept numbers but looks through them for the truth.
August 13, 2021: in “Turning the Corner”, Scott expected inflation to subside but not the Covid-19 pandemic. He was wrong about inflation but very right about the pandemic and its effects on the global economy. Kudos for letting us know it was too early to celebrate.
October 15, 2021: Scott had attended a conference where a Fed Governor was the keynote speaker. In “Crosscurrents”, he shared with us the Governor’s “Swear Jar”. Every time the Fed Governor said the word “transitory” during the presentation, the Governor humbly placed a dollar in the jar. This was the start of the turning of tide with respect to the Fed’s use of the term “transitory inflation.”
January 14, 2022: helping us gain understanding by looking back at history, Scott compared today’s situation to the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, another period of accelerating inflation. He smartly drew distinctions that made it clear the two periods are vastly different. He humbly suggested “Expect a lot of second guessing”. To some extent, this last comment helps explain the increasing volatility we have seen in various markets in 2022.
March 11, 2022: “Prepare to go Full Volcker”, was a great attention getter, capturing the Fed’s pronouncement to “do whatever it takes, without reservation, to protect price stability”. Only yesterday, after the Fed’s announcement to hike interest rates, one of the talking heads on the financial channel called it “the full Volcker”. I bet he reads Scott’s weekly commentary.
April 14, 2022: in “Peak Inflation, So What”, a full circle homage to the June 11 title, Scott helped us understand the different types of inflation, where the tough spots in the economy are likely to surface, and closed with the thought “inflation should moderate, but remain relatively high”. He stayed true to the goal of calling it like he sees it.
I’ll miss Scott Brown’s weekly thoughts, observations, wit and wisdom. In a short note sent to him this week, I indicated that I “wanted to take a moment and let you know that I have appreciated your work over the years. Your consistent and well-researched outlooks have improved client outcomes, in my opinion.”
Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., thank you. You are a gentleman and a scholar.
Ralph McDevitt May 6, 2022
Any opinions are those of Ralph McDevitt and not necessarily those of Raymond James.
