October 2015
As you know, the market has recently experienced a long awaited correction of approximately 12% on the S&P 500 from its July high. However, the market almost immediately regained some of its losses, but now stands approximately 10% off its July high.
Why is the market down?
Where Do We Go From Here?
Some have asked why we don't raise cash and re-enter the market at a later time. We do not attempt to time the market because we do not have a crystal ball. The statistical probability of selling and buying back at just the right time is very low. In addition, those who sell out during volatile markets miss out on dramatic upswings as well as downswings.
There is a good probability, based on historical market patterns, that we will test the recent low in the next several weeks. Technicians tell us this “W” (double bottom) formation is more bullish than a “V” (single bottom). The market is likely to remain volatile throughout the fall. However, just as stocks are often weak in the fall, the weakness historically sets the table for what has been the best period of the year (November – April). Therefore, by Thanksgiving we expect the next leg up to have begun and give us yet another reason to “give thanks”.
I trust you are enjoying the beginning of fall weather and football season despite the volatility in the market. If you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact us.
1Broadridge Forefield Market Month, August 2015
Past performance does not guarantee future results and there is no assurance that the objectives will be met. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss. The information and opinions provided have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made, nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. Any opinions are those of Malcolm Tarver, Bloomberg and Raymond James research, and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Bloomberg is not affiliated with Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The opinions expressed are provided solely for informational purposes and not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Long-term investing does not insure a profitable outcome. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks and is generally considered representative of the US equity market. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance may not be indicative of futures results.
