October 2022

Are you as dedicated to knowing and watching the weather as I am?  I feel like dedication is the best term to use. It feels much more acceptable than obsessed, which, might actually be more accurate to the outside observer.  I like to know what the weather is going to be today, tomorrow, this week, next week. I just need to know.

It seems to me, that if I know what the weather is going to be then I can plan accordingly and be prepared.  I mean if the snow is going to fly, let me know so I can have my gloves and winter coat.  Is it me or is the weather truly the most important part of the newscast?

What has become obvious to me, and probably to most people that watch the weather, is that the weather person can hit their predications right on the nose, but they can also be very, very wrong. Sure, with technology, the science behind their predictions has probably gotten more accurate, but I can think of several times this year, maybe even in the last few months or weeks, that not only were they wrong, but they weren’t even close.

I guess it is safe to say, that anyone can make predictions and eventually get something right. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.  As Yogi Berra used to say, “It is very difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”  I agree! 

Often in our profession, Cliff, Mike or I are frequently asked: what do we think is going to happen in the market?  What will the market do the rest of this year?  Will the market come back this year?  Will we head into a recession this year or next year?  While we can give you some thoughts and insights from what we read, hear and talk about, the bottom line is, we don’t know what the future will bring.  March 2020 is the perfect example of this.  No one knew what this COVID-19 was, we certainly didn’t expect it to affect the markets the way it did (dropping 32% in 3 weeks), we all thought we would be back to normal in a two-week period, and we certainly couldn’t have predicted that the market would end the year up 38% after such a dramatic drop.

What we have learned over the years at Kindred Financial Partners is the investment philosophy you hear us remind you of often:  We don’t predict the future; we plan for your future.