Monthly Market Insights - March 2025
For those privy enough to read into the future as I am, Time magazine published an article entitled “Never Offline” in their September 22, 2014 edition. I referenced this piece during troubling times in our September 2023 interim monthly update as it explores the growing phenomenon of constant connectivity and its impact on society.
This piece delved into how technology, particularly smartphones and the internet, was reshaping human behavior, relationships, and even our sense of self. The article highlighted the challenges of being perpetually connected, such as the blurring of boundaries between work and personal life, the rise of digital addiction, and the societal pressure to always be available.
Interestingly, the themes discussed in that article have only become more relevant over time. Today, in 2025, the concept of being “never offline” has evolved further with advancements in wearable technology, AI-driven communication tools, and the integration of digital lives into nearly every aspect of daily existence.
Setting aside being comedic or perhaps obnoxious, this headline grabbed my attention.
Many of you know me well enough to surmise the correlation. Steven & SBOT are never disconnected from the markets. Some people, including my husband, call it an addiction.
Despite feeling as if I am waking up to “clown world” and the associated feelings on a daily basis, there are major risks to the economy on the table.
Although we don’t usually give updates in the middle of the month, we felt this one was necessary. In the interest of time and to clearly summarize the risks on the table, I am going to be brief, and bullet point oriented.
Factors driving near-term concern include:
- Government Shutdown: The U.S. is facing a potential government shutdown if a funding bill is not passed by March 14. Historically, these shutdowns are resolved, allowing essential services to continue.
- Tariff Talk: As tariff discussions intensify, we expect temporary price increases on some items. Ultimately, trade policy shifts will settle, balancing the protection of domestic industries with global cooperation.
- Private Credit Markets: Elevated interest rates, economic uncertainty, and regulatory scrutiny will continue to apply pressure. Lenders may tighten underwriting, and borrowers will focus on improving cash flow until a potential Federal Reserve pivot.
- Margin Borrowing at Record Levels: This may exacerbate near-term volatility as borrowers liquidate positions.
- Inflation: Until demand destruction occurs across enough markets, adverse inflation reports will continue to influence interest rate policy.
Despite these challenges, there are positives. Fundamentals remain strong, with a decreasing yield curve driving interest rates down. Oversold markets are creating value for investors, and as the Fed pivots, opportunities will emerge in small and mid-sized companies, biotech, and growth equities.
Our strategy involves de-risking further, eliminating exposure in vulnerable sectors like real estate, financials, and transports. As opportunities arise in dislocated fixed income markets, institutional money will move quickly, often leaving retail investors to lag behind.
Timing is uncertain, but with market psychology shifting, everyone should remain alert to signals like volatility swings, liquidity reductions, and erratic price actions. Excellent buying opportunities await in the areas mentioned above.
We are prepared to manage through this period of volatility and capitalize on emerging opportunities, as we have always done. The greatest challenges often precede significant gains.
For further information and insights, please reach out to our new distribution group at TSG-IC@Raymondjames.com to:
- Gain insights into our committee’s market outlook and strategies.
- Receive prompt responses to your trading inquiries.
- Ask questions about your portfolio performance.
- Stay updated on our committee’s analysis and market sentiment.
Please feel free to contact us if you have any questions or need further assistance.
Looking forward to a prosperous Spring together. Onward and upward!
Best Regards,
Steven and Daniel
STEVEN W. SCHMITT, MBA, CFP®, CPM®, CRPS®, ADPA®
Managing Director, Private Wealth Advisor
CA Insurance # 0G61253
The Schmitt Group of Raymond James
Raymond James & Associates, Inc. // 3CV
61 S. Paramus Road Suite 360, Paramus NJ 07652
Direct 551.497.5531 // Text 201.559.0775 // eFax 201.291.4298
steven.schmitt@raymondjames.com
raymondjames.com/schmittgroup
Member of the Raymond James Pride Financial Advisors Network
Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc. (CFP Board) owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER®, and CFP® in the United States, which it authorizes use of by individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.
Any opinions are those of Steven Schmitt and Daniel Mar and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in this commentary does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The NASDAQ composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any company's stock mentioned above. The prominent underlying risk of using bitcoin as a medium of exchange is that it is not authorized or regulated by any central bank. Bitcoin issuers are not registered with the SEC, and the bitcoin marketplace is currently unregulated. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are a very speculative investment and involves a high degree of risk. Investors must have the financial ability, sophistication/experience and willingness to bear the risks of an investment, and a potential total loss of their investment.
Private Wealth Advisor is a designation awarded by Raymond James to financial advisors who have demonstrated mastery in anticipating and managing the expansive financial needs of high-net-worth individuals, families and organizations.
