The Roaring 20's
“The Roaring 20’s were the period of that Great American Prosperity which was built on shaky foundations.” – Paul Getty
Born from the ashes of World War I and the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic, the 1920’s was a remarkably innovative period of growth and prosperity. History has shown that post-crisis periods are often history’s most productive eras. Microsoft was founded in 1975 during the oil embargo recession. Uber and Airbnb started during the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.
In no way am I saying that the last few years have been as difficult as those from 1915-1920. They have not. Compared to the 1920’s, we have been spoiled to live through an age of miracles and blessings. But if you look at the excellent graphic below from Ben Carlson, you can see what came after all the suffering from 1915-1920.
It is very possible we are setting up for a vaguely similar phase right now. We have seen over $5 trillion in stimulus get shot directly into the economy like free t-shirts at a college basketball game. And with possibly more on the way, growth is accelerating. (source: Peterson Foundation)
- Need a new appliance for your home? You might wait 3 – 6 months because demand is through the roof.
- Hoping to have that deck built at your home? Lumber prices have more than doubled in the last 6 months. (source: Thomson)
- Feeling like traveling after being locked down for so long? Rental car prices are spiking to up to $400/day in the continental US, and up to $600/day in Hawaii. (source: View From The Wing)
- Hoping to buy a home? You better have cash, be willing to pay more than asking price, and be lucky.
It’s way too early to be absolutely certain about the next few years. But Americans have proven in the past that if you give them the ability to spend money, generally they will do exactly that. And lots of those dollars tend to wind up on the balance sheets of the companies we own. The companies in which we are able to buy shares of stock.
It will be fascinating to look back at this marketmail in 5 years.
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