Featured Research

Convenience stores: A deep dive on recent trends and store locations
Our report is a deep dive on the differences in store bases for ARKO, Casey’s, Circle K, Murphy USA and 7-Eleven US based stores, as well as recent performance trends. We have seen a divergence in fuel volume trends, with larger scale operators continuing to take share from the average, marginal industry participant.

Across the bay from the lightning, launching RJ’s first 10 utility & power plays
We are launching coverage on the utilities & power space with a wide-ranging group of companies, focused on power and electric utilities. We are quite constructive on the sector, and have selected some of the more intriguing growth stories and higher quality names for our initial launch. We also appreciate the “risk on” vs. “risk off” balance of the two categories together.

Can Big Oil keep its footing amid tariff volatility?
We discuss investor sentiment and debates following recent corporate and investor conversations. Overall, the sentiment is that Big Oil is still the safer play for energy investors. Despite the tumultuous market backdrop as of late, integrated oil & gas remains near the top of the list (with midstream) among generalists and investors that don’t want to be too limited within other sub-sectors of energy.

Monthly Consumer Credit Dashboard: Recoveries surprisingly stable, sentiment worse
Our monthly consumer credit analysis focuses on major card issuer master trust data, consumer debt/deposit balances and NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations data. All provide insight into the health of the consumer.

Navigating a historic biotech dislocation: What’s driving the underperformance?
Periods of biotech underperformance have historically been followed by periods of meaningful outperformance. We expect the same will be true following the current downcycle; however, timing a recovery is particularly challenging. Interest rates and drug pricing remain the most sensitive valuation input for biotechnology. Amid the confluence of key uncertainties, applying a consistent valuation framework across the sector remains challenging for investors.

Infrastructure & construction: Imagining possibilities under Carney
In his federal election victory speech, Premier Mark Carney not only vowed to build Canada into an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy but also doubled down on his predecessor’s plan to build more homes that Canadians can afford. Although we are not ready to take what Mr. Carney said to the bank just yet, his aspirations have positive long-term ramifications for our infrastructure & construction universe.

Diversified Canadian lumber producers discounting worst case tariff scenario
Between the higher final rate for “regular” softwood lumber duties and the potential for additional Section 232 “Trump Tariffs,” Canadian forest products companies have been under siege. In this note, we quantify the earnings implications of existing lumber duties and provide a sensitivity analysis for the potential of additional Section 232 tariffs.

Raymond James semi-annual media usage trends survey
We have observed the normalization of most trends back toward pre-COVID levels and believe video consumption trends are at a regular pace for consumers. Shifts in streaming pricing and packaging are the more observable trend, with inflation still observably impacting TV package retention. Clearly, consumers are demanding just as much content as they were before, but they are getting it from a wider variety of platforms.

Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) modal substitution and the alligator mouth puzzle
Modal substitution (LTL → Full Truckload (FTL)/Partial Truckload (PTL) or LTL → Parcel) has been a concern for as long as we have covered the industry as shippers do (in theory) have modal options. However, given the recent departure in industry volume from industrial production, which historically has had a very high correlation, these concerns have again stirred. Further, given that LTL pricing has far outpaced TL pricing (i.e., a widening “alligator mouth”), concerns remain that LTL is simply pricing itself out of its own market and is losing modal share.